Weekly Roundup - Aug 14, 2026
Top Federal Stories
Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has been in Washington all week trying to stop the next round of American tariffs slated to begin on August 19. Donald Trump has threatened 50 per cent tariffs on a range of Canadian goods with CUSMA compliance providing no exemptions this time. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has repeatedly named three irritants: provincial bans on American liquor, supply managed dairy, and quotas on certain U.S. vehicles. While the public rhetoric is charged, American negotiators appear to have moderated their position on dairy. American producers are pushing for technical changes to how the supply management quota system works, rather than the elimination of supply management entirely. Currently, the quantity of U.S. dairy products into Canada is managed by a quota system. After a certain threshold is met, a tariff is levied to protect Canadian dairy producers.
LeBlanc's team has been chasing a comprehensive deal to remove the new tariffs and ease the existing levies on steel, aluminum, autos and forestry. In return, the federal government would work with the provinces to return American liquor to shelves. How much American liquor sales would increase in Canada under such a scenario is a separate matter. Even in provinces without a ban, consumer boycotts have depressed sales.
Public frustration with the Trump administration is steady. A petition calling for the removal of U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has passed 106,000 signatures. It carries no legal weight, though the number gives some perspective on how fed-up Canadians have become.
On defence, the military is changing how it buys drones. Lt.Gen. Darcy Molstad argues the Ukraine war has made uncrewed systems a critical capability, and that the Forces must build this capacity alongside industry rather than at arm's length. Molstad’s comments are echoed by the Defence Industrial Strategy, which identifies domestic capacity in autonomous systems as a priority. The Canadian Armed Forces ran a two-day testing and demonstration showcase in the Ottawa Valley this week, putting roughly 200 personnel in front of nearly 30 mostly Canadian manufacturing firms. Ottawa is expediting its usual procurement process by assembling a pool of pre-qualified drone suppliers in about two months, work that used to take years. Three significant requests for proposals will be issued once the list of potential proponents is finalized.
Premier Danielle Smith released a video this week framing Alberta's AI data centre strategy as an extension of the province's energy economy. Smith described the facilities as "digital refineries" that convert natural gas into computing power and exportable products. The government projects Meta's $13-billion Sturgeon County project will generate approximately 3,000 construction jobs and $250 million annually in taxes and royalties. The video also directly addressed concerns raised by local protestors in Sturgeon country last week, noting data centre developers will need to cover their own infrastructure costs and promising new provincial standards to manage water use, protect communities and farmland. Appearing on The Hub's Alberta Edge podcast, New West Partner Keith McLaughlin talked through where anti-AI sentiment is headed and how it could reshape politics both provincially and federal level.
A new Angus Reid Institute poll shows 61 per cent of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada, compared to 30 per cent who say they would support separation. Of those backing separation, 41 per cent say their vote is primarily a message to Ottawa rather than a genuine preference for independence. Support for the issue has remained largely stable since May, though the separatist base reports more motivated engagement, with 85 per cent of separation supporters viewing the October referendum as “very important” for Alberta's future, compared to 60 per cent of those favouring confederation.
As summer winds down and the referendum nears, advocates on all sides of the issue are mobilizing. Mitch Sylvestre, leader of the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, held a town hall in Airdrie this week where a draft constitution for an independent Alberta was presented. The event drew condemnation from federalists over alleged hate speech. Preston Manning and former B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell are also scheduled to lead a virtual assembly on "Alberta and the West" on September 19 and 20 to examine independence, provincial powers, and confederation alternatives.
While Albertans navigate contention over data centres and separation, University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe is highlighting some good news for the province. Tombe says Alberta’s fiscal picture has turned around from the bleak deficit projected at the top of the year, estimating a $3.8-billion surplus thus far which could end with roughly $6 billion by March 2027. Tombe notes that for every US$1 movement in oil prices, Alberta's finances shift by approximately $680 million, meaning the province requires oil prices to average around US$66 to sustain the projected surplus. The government's official fiscal update is expected later this month. The tone will undoubtably be positive, but the underlying dynamic persists: Alberta's finances remain at the mercy of highly volatile commodity markets.
Top Ontario Stories
The Ford government released the draft framework for a Data Centre Playbook on Thursday, calling it an early pillar of an AI Industrial Strategy the government plans to release this fall. The framework rests on three principles: data centres must invest substantially in Ontario and in host communities, they must pay the full cost of their electricity, and the province will offer only non-financial support such as white glove service and permitting facilitation.
Amendments already made to the Electricity Act let Cabinet set the conditions a data centre must meet before it can connect to the grid. The province is now considering regulation that would require large new data centres to obtain government approval to connect, and the Playbook would inform those decisions through a two-part assessment: one covering connection feasibility, grid impacts and full cost recovery, including plans to bring their own power, and a second scoring projects on economic development, digital sovereignty, and community investment. The government is also weighing a separate electricity rate class for data centres above one megawatt and restricting their eligibility for the Industrial Conservation Initiative. The scale of new requests explains why the province is considering the change. The Independent Electricity System Operator now counts roughly 7,000 megawatts of connection requests, which is more than a quarter of provincial peak demand.
Consultation on the draft framework closes September 12 but municipalities are not waiting. Two days before the Playbook was revealed, Oakville council voted unanimously to enact a one-year moratorium on new data centres, and directed staff to study noise, vibration, emissions and land-use implications. Oakville is the first municipality to take such measures, but Waterloo Region also moved to study impacts and is considering advocacy for a provincial framework. Mississauga’s interim control bylaw, which implements a one-year pause on new data centre developments, returns to council for final approval on September 16, while Hamilton and Burlington have both debated but ultimately rejected their own pauses. Ford called the moratoriums hypocritical and dismissed them as NIMBYism, framing the buildout as essential to sovereignty: “we either do our own data centres and keep our own data sovereignty, or we let President Trump run us over like he has in other areas.” For proponents, the landscape now presents a two divergent approval problems: connection approval would sit with the province once the regulation is made, while land use remains a municipal challenge.
On transit, Metrolinx confirmed on Tuesday that the Ontario Line now carries a price tag of about $34 billion, up from the $10.9 billion projected cost when the line was announced in 2019. However, the two figures are not like for like: the 2019 number was a construction estimate, while the current total bundles 30 years of operations, maintenance and lifecycle costs, property acquisition, contingencies and financing. Even within the expanded scope of the new figures, there is genuine cost escalation. Chief executive Michael Lindsay cited supply-chain shocks and trade uncertainty, saying the figure will climb again once the elevated guideway contract is awarded. Metrolinx is among eight provincial agencies placed under Treasury Board spending review, which will examine governance, productivity, and financial management.
The Ford government was on the backfoot again over reporting that the Progressive Conservative Party spent nearly $3,000 on two Jamaican resorts in December 2023 to surveil Bonnie Crombie, six days after she won the Ontario Liberal leadership. The party confirmed its opposition research “included travel to Jamaica in December 2023.” Ford said he learned of the expense the day before and does not approve, but noted “stuff happens during elections.” NDP Leader Marit Stiles said heads need to roll, and Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser called it an extraordinary abuse of public money. While the money was the party’s, Ontario parties draw a per-vote subsidy.
Against the backdrop of yet another misstep from the Ford government, the Liberal leadership race is well underway. At the first debate in Brampton on Monday, five candidates took aim at Ford rather than each other and were only divided on the question of whether the next leader needs a seat at Queen’s Park. Liberal Party members vote from November 9 to 20, with the result announced on November 21.
The New West Team is ready to guide clients through this uncertain time in Canadian politics.
