Weekly Roundup - Aug 28, 2026
Top Federal Stories
Negotiations on President Donald Trump's 50 per cent tariffs on roughly $28 billion of Canadian goods fell apart on Friday, August 21. Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from talks, stating that American demands would have hollowed out the auto sector, given Washington power over Canadian trade policy with other countries, and weakened French language protections.
While negotiations soured in D.C., back at home, political support for the deal was weakening. Ontario Premier Doug Ford was particularly concerned that Ontario would bear much of the damage if the remaining auto and steel tariffs made Canadian plants uncompetitive. Carney reportedly advocated to premiers that the deal was still worth considering as it would prevent new tariffs, reduce several existing tariffs and restart the CUSMA renegotiation. Despite these appeals, support was thin from provincial leaders. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew came forward to publicly encourage consumer boycotts of American alcohol, regardless of conditions of the deal, and Ford reportedly told Carney that Ontario would not support the agreement.
Canada will now match the U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar, effective September 8. For now, Canadians seem to be behind the Prime Minister. A new Abacus Data pollrevealed that seven out of ten Canadians support Carney's decision to pull out of the deal. Whether that feeling holds depends largely on how quickly and severely tariffs reach consumers. Canadians may not feel the full impact right away, but a long range of goods are included on the list of retaliatory tariffs. Businesses may initially absorb some of the impact but if tariffs persist, higher costs could be passed on through supply chains, adding to inflation and putting further pressure on household budgets.
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates about 87,200 Canadian jobs are at risk. Ontario stands to lose the most, then Quebec and British Columbia, with agriculture and the makers of electronics, furniture, clothing and plastics carrying most of the exposure. The Canadian Labour Congress counts 1.1 million Canadians working in affected industries.
In response to these risks, the federal government announced a $7.5 billion support package for affected Canadian workers and businesses. The package includes $1.5 billion to help small and medium-sized enterprises, $2 billion in the new Canada Strong Diversification Fund for tariff-impacted companies with capital projects, and $3.5 billion in Rapid Response Supports including extended EI measures.
Alberta is forecasting a $2-billion surplus for 2026–27, just months after projecting a $9.4-billion deficit. The more than $11-billion swing is largely the result of higher oil prices stemming from the conflict with Iran and disruptions to global supply, which have driven up provincial royalty and tax revenues.
Finance Minister Jason Nixon cautioned against treating the windfall as permanent, noting Alberta’s continued exposure to volatile energy prices and growing trade uncertainty. While oil has averaged about $88 US per barrel since the budget was tabled, well above the government’s original $60.50 assumption, the province is conservatively forecasting an average of $73.50 for the full fiscal year. According to Alberta Finance, every US $1 change in the price of a barrel of oil translates into an estimated $680-million swing in the province’s bottom line.
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi is calling for the province to use the unexpected revenue to provide affordability relief, invest in infrastructure and put more money into long-term savings. The government says any potential new spending could instead focus on tariff relief for businesses or another round of energy rebates.
After two heated in-person town halls saw Technology and Innovation Minister Nate Glubish faced jeers, criticism and demands for stronger safeguards around Alberta’s rapidly expanding AI data centre industry, Premier Danielle Smith took her turn in the hot seat. On Thursday, Smith joined Glubish for a virtual town hall that drew more than 12,500 participants and, while the tone was considerably calmer, many of the concerns remained the same. Albertans pressed the government on water consumption, electricity affordability and grid reliability, the location of proposed facilities and whether setbacks should be required to keep large-scale data centres away from homes and communities. Smith maintained the province is listening and using the town halls to identify potential gaps in its regulatory framework, while signalling the government is considering new guidance around setbacks.
On the same day, the Alberta NDP unveiled its AI Data Centres Blueprint and called for a pause on new data centre approvals until projects are subject to impact assessments. The opposition’s proposed framework would require projects to demonstrate community benefits, minimize freshwater use, and include end-of-life reclamation plans. NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi argued the government has moved too quickly without establishing clear rules for either communities or investors, pointing to the recent rejection of a proposed data centre power project in Olds as evidence of the uncertainty.
As trade tensions intensified this week, Alberta’s Premier didn’t deviate from her preferred diplomatic approach. In an update on tariff response, Smith warned that using the province’s oil and gas as leverage could trigger an even more aggressive response from Washington and cause significant economic damage at home. She pushed back against calls from Ontario Premier Doug Ford (more on that below) to put energy on the table, arguing Canada is better served by building pressure through U.S. governors, lawmakers and the American public.
The Alberta NDP, meanwhile, is linking the trade fight more directly to the Oct. 19 referendum. The party is launching its Rally the Vote for Canada tour in Calgary on Aug. 29, with more than a dozen stops planned across Alberta. NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi argues the referendum is weakening Canada at a time when the country should be presenting a united front against U.S. President Donald Trump.
Top Ontario Stories
Premier Doug Ford opened the week as perhaps the loudest anti-Trump voice in the country, then spent the second half of it trying to bring down the temperature he had contributed to. Ford backed the Prime Minister’s decision to walk away from talks, calling the rejected agreement a bad deal for Ontario’s steel and auto sectors. On Monday he told Newstalk 1010 that the President could “kiss my ass,” then repeated the jab at a news conference in Hamilton. Later the same day, he told the Associated Press he was prepared to cut off electricity and critical minerals. Trump replied on social media, dismissing the remarks as bluster, calling the premier “Flunky Ford,” and announcing tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel would all be set at 50 per cent on January 1, 2027.
While Ford’s venting seems to echo the frustration many Canadians are feeling, by Wednesday the tone had cooled. In Vaughan, Ford qualified the energy threat, saying “I can’t do it alone… I’m not the only province that ships electricity down to the U.S. We need a Team Canada approach.” He confirmed Ontario will not run anti-tariff advertising in the United States before the U.S. November midterm elections, and conceded the exchange had grown too heated. Still, the sparring continued on Thursday when Trump signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America,” to which Ford answered on social media: “It’s Lake Ontario to Canadians and the rest of the world. Now and forever.”
Both opposition parties are demanding that MPPs return to Queen’s Park to pass emergency tariff relief, but Ford is resisting, calling the requests “gutter politics.” MPPs are not scheduled to return until October 27, but the government is taking steps to cushion the incoming tariff blow.
On Monday the government broadened eligibility for the Protect Ontario Financing Program, which lends up to $1 billion against working capital pressures including payroll, lease and utility costs. Eligibility has been extended to exporters newly caught by the 50 per cent tariffs Washington imposed on August 22, as well as those still subject to the existing American duties on steel, aluminum, copper and automotive goods. On Tuesday Ford issued a memorandum to the chairs of provincial agencies and boards reminding them of their responsibility to support local businesses. He said his government would “hunt” down public sector organizations buying American in contravention of the Buy Ontario Act. Ontario’s broader public sector spends roughly $30 billion a year on goods and services, and the premier’s letter to agency boards serves as notice that the province intends to enforce Buy Ontario procurement policies.
The renewed trade tensions may be shaping voter intentions. A new Liaison Strategies survey of 1,500 Ontarians put the Progressive Conservatives four points ahead of the Liberals among decided and leaning voters, signalling a recovery for the PCs who have been bogged down by a summer of expense controversies. The same poll indicates the rebound belongs to the party more than to the man. Although Ford’s approval rose 12 points to 36 per cent, 61 per cent still disapprove of his performance and 72 per cent say the province is headed in the wrong direction. While the Premier may not be popular, an overwhelming 85 per cent of respondents back him when it comes to keeping American alcohol off LCBO shelves. The September 3 provincial byelections may reveal whether the PC recovery is real. Advance voting ran this week for the byelections in Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, Scarborough Southwest and York–Simcoe.
The New West Team is ready to guide clients through this uncertain time in Canadian politics.
