Cabinet Shuffle Analysis
This week saw a major overhaul of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet. The move comes roughly halfway through a four-year term, but there’s nothing to say a fractious minority parliament couldn’t head to a general election much sooner.
Some previous cabinet ministers were shown the door while other backbenchers were brought into the cabinet fold. All told, seven ministers were given the boot and nearly three-quarters of cabinet saw a change in minister assigned to a portfolio.
Below, we’ll recap some of the key themes and changes in the Liberal cabinet, and what they mean for the Trudeau team heading into a fall session and next general election.
Regional representation and future chances of electoral success factored heavily into the cabinet appointment process. There are just two cabinet ministers spanning the three prairie provinces, where the Liberals had six government MPs to choose from. Randy Boissonnault of Edmonton will continue to do the heavy lifting of representing Alberta’s interests at the cabinet table with his elevation to Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages, while Dan Vandal of Winnipeg is responsible for Prairie Economic Development. While the Calgary region is the fourth most populous in Canada, MP George Chahal was left from cabinet, with Calgary-area pundits taking note. On the other hand, Quebec continues to be well represented in cabinet with 11 ministers, a sign the Trudeau government knows they need to be well represented in a province that holds 78 seats.
Four of the seven new cabinet ministers are from the GTA, a sure sign that the vote rich region continues to be a big focus for the Liberal government. The four new ministers, in Justice (Arif Virani), Crown-Indigenous Relations (Gary Anandasangaree), Mental Health and Addictions (Ya’ara Saks) and Small Business (Rechie Valdez) replace four GTA ministers who were shown out of cabinet. With relatively high-profile ministries entrusted to new cabinet ministers who are representative of the culturally diverse region, it’s apparent that keeping a heavy cabinet presence in the GTA is top of mind. All told, Ontario has 16 of 39 seats at the cabinet table.
How much does the naming of a ministry frame the work that the government carries out? That will be a focus for those in the energy sector with Jonathan Wilkinson’s portfolio revamped to the name of Energy and Natural Resources. With net-zero mandates and production cuts for oil and gas top of mind for the industry and the Alberta provincial government, next steps from Minister Wilkinson will be closely followed.
The Trudeau government appears to realize that they take Atlantic Canada for granted at their own peril. Especially with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre making stops and inroads out east, the PM has responded by handing high profile roles to Dominic LeBlanc (Public Safety added to his previous work in Intergovernmental Affairs), Sean Fraser (Housing, Infrastructure and Communities), Lawrence MacAulay (Agriculture and Agri-Food) and Seamus O’Regan (Labour and Seniors).
The Prime Minister’s Office stays the same, and if we leave you with one thought, it’s a reminder of how centralized power is in the Trudeau government. Despite the many changes to titles, faces and perceived priorities with yesterday’s cabinet shuffle, the fact remains that the top boss and his core set of staff remains largely the same from one, two or five years ago. Now, the staffer shuffle begins: the next 30 days in the lead-up to the cabinet retreat in P.E.I. will see movement amongst ministerial staff as some move on, move up, move sideways (laterally) or move out.
We welcome your questions and stand by to assist our clients in navigating Prime Minister Trudeau's new cabinet.