The Battle for BC
Eby bets on an early election
BC NDP Leader David Eby has taken the calculated risk to call an early election in the province, hoping to catch the BC Conservatives flat footed just two years into his government’s mandate.
Eby repeatedly used his news conference to equate the BC Conservative party to Trump style politics from the United States, and made the argument that electing the conservative party would threaten the stability of the province and its current diverse and welcoming state.
The temptation of a snap election call has sounded its siren song to premiers across the political spectrum in Canada with mixed results. Just last year, Ontario Premier Doug Ford took a similar gamble, running on the need for a strong mandate to stand up to the US and Donald Trump. He was rewarded with a strong majority mandate. The late Progressive Conservative Alberta Premier Jim Prentice called a similar snap election in 2015 stating that the fiscal measures contained in the spring budget needed a new mandate; the end result was the first and only NDP government in Alberta’s history.
David Eby resisted calling an early election in 2024 when the political right was divided, a missed opportunity that likely shaped his decision this time around. But the gamble is high risk, high reward: voters could punish him for forcing an election while the BC Conservatives are without a permanent leader and municipal campaigns are already underway.
Municipal elections are scheduled for October 17, just one week before the provincial election on October 24, giving voters two trips to the polls in the span of seven days.
Will the BC Conservatives be able to organize and consolidate under one unified banner under Interim Leader Lorne Doerkson? It’s not a new scenario to the centre right in BC politics. In the 2024 campaign, then BC Conservative Leader John Rustad ran a campaign immediately following the merger of BC United and the Conservatives. A steady hand and message discipline will be essential for the BC Conservatives after a tumultuous 2026 (leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay stepped aside just on Sunday).
A flurry of nominations, platform documents and tours are being put together by the two teams now. The Conservatives are moving quickly with CentreBC leader Peter Milobar and six of his fellow MLAs returning to the Conservative fold after late-night talks with interim leader Lorne Doerkson and more details are expected at a news conference later today.
However, we can’t forget that the Green party often holds a crucial bargaining chip in BC politics, garnering enough seats to be meddlesome. The BC NDP came into power in 2017 after the election left no party with a majority. While the BC Liberals won the most seats, the NDP under the late John Horgan reached a confidence-and-supply agreement with the BC Greens, giving Horgan enough support to form a minority government. BC Green Party Leader Emily Lowan will be given her first chance to lead her party in a general election.
New West Public Affairs will be following the BC election closely, and is available to help clients make sense of the dynamic and changing landscape in the province. Be sure to stay tuned for weekly editions of our BC election coverage.
