Parliament Is Back - Here’s What New West is Watching
After a busy summer break - from Canada-US trade negotiations, to nation-building projects, to Pierre Poilievre's by-election win - MPs have returned to Ottawa for what will be a busy Fall session of the House of Commons. With shifting political dynamics, an unpredictable global order, and a consequential legislative agenda, there's no shortage of intrigue. Here are five things we'll be watching closely:
1. Spending and Borrowing
With a federal 'budget' expected imminently, economists and investors will be closely monitoring the fiscal situation. Already, the government is seeding the idea of a budget that combines austerity with targeted investments, following a public commitment earlier this summer to achieve 7.5 per cent in spending reductions in the upcoming budget.
2. Defence Industrial Policy
Prime Minister Mark Carney has set aggressive targets and timelines to significantly increase defence spending in Canada. To sell Canadians on the significant increase in spending, Carney has promised a defence industrial policy to ensure the economic benefits of such spending are capitalized on by Canadian companies. We expect to see that strategy tabled in Parliament before the Christmas break.
3. The Climate-Energy Complex
Despite his significant ties to climate policy and climate action, Mark Carney has shown a warmness to the energy sector since becoming Prime Minister, arguing Canada must at once be a powerhouse of both clean and conventional energy. Already, the Prime Minister has unveiled the first five major projects designated under Bill C-5, scrapped the consumer carbon tax, and cancelled the 2026 EV sales mandate. The Prime Minister has also promised a forthcoming climate competitiveness strategy, leaving both environmental and energy advocates anxious for what's to come.
4. Public Safety and Immigration
The Conservatives are setting up to see public safety and immigration dominate debate in the House. Strong issues for the Conservatives, it could be argued that a lack of announcements regarding these issues, particularly on the issues of home invasions and auto thefts in the GTA, cost the Liberals a majority government. Meanwhile, immigration has vaulted to the top of public consciousness as unemployment among young Canadians rises to its highest rates in decades. The Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program remains a focal point of that issue.
5. The Return of Pierre Poilievre
With the return of Pierre Poilievre (the now MP for Battle River-Crowfoot, former MP for Carleton) to the House, will we see a sharpening of the tone and rhetoric in the House? The final days of the Trudeau government were particularly heated and unproductive, but the Conservatives struck a lighter tone this Spring after the election of Mark Carney. They've also promised to provide alternatives, not just opposition, proactively calling for certain public safety and immigration reforms. Will the niceties last, or will the hostilities return?
Parliament's return marks the start of a packed agenda. From budgets to public safety, let alone the potential of more by-elections, there's no shortage of action for political watchers to keep an eye on.
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