Saskatchewan Budget Analysis 2024

A Bonanza Budget as Election Season Beckons

Much like a spring prairie snowstorm, the Saskatchewan Party’s seventeenth budget shouldn’t be a surprise – even in an election year. Delivering a basket of new goodies, especially in the months before a vote, is as old as politics itself. And so it was, with Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Donna Harpauer concluding her tenure in the Sask. Party government by presenting a $273.2 million deficit budget focused on record spending. With an upbeat speech and no new tax measures, the Minister suggested that the good times are ready to roll. The message was simple: the province is economically well-positioned, inflation is coming down, and now is the time to invest in the future.

The snowstorm of cash turned out to be more like a blizzard. The Sask. Party delivered the largest-ever annual budget increase in health care, in education and in transfers to towns and cities. Ditto for capital investments, where the new spending growth in 2024-25 is the highest since the party took office in 2007. All predictable in action – especially with an ongoing teacher’s strike and shoddy urban polling numbers – but not in degree. Bet on the big-money investments to feature heavily in the governing party’s communications to parents and patients alike in the lead-up to October’s election.

Below is what you need to know about Saskatchewan’s 2024 budget.

Hey, Big Spender

Education and health come away with unambiguous wins. The respective funding increases of eight and ten per cent in 2024-25 means that the government will invest at double the rate of 2024’s growth in population and inflation – an unprecedented spike compared to other provincial governments. With the extra $42 million in transfers to towns and cities across the province, the total new spending for “classrooms, care and communities” in Sask. Party parlance is $1.1 billion for 2024-25. Upskilling initiatives also got new money to combat chronic labour shortages, including $22.9 million for new apprenticeship seats and $15 million for more access to various health professional programs.

Build Baby Build

Investment in new capital projects is slated to grow by $700 million in 2024-25 and another $800 on top of that in 2025-2026. The government also tipped its hand on infrastructure by outlining water projects in great detail. $35.9 million will support construction of the Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Project. Another $53 million will be spent on smaller irrigation projects across the province. Regina is getting attention through SaskWater, which will continue building the Non-potable Water System Project for farmers in the area. The reality of a hot, dry summer is clearly burning in the back of more than a few minister’s minds.

Support for Farmers and Ranchers

Budget 2024 also shovels some new money towards the province’s agriculture sector. $23.7 million of new cash is being spent on federal-provincial Crop Insurance and Agri-Stability programs, to help float farming revenues for what is likely to be a tough season. Grazing rates have been frozen again in 2024-25, keeping them pegged at 2022 levels, and the Crop Insurance Corporation is expanding its scope to insure additional types of grains. All helpful – but none more so than intense rainfall, particularly as the whole province is experiencing drought of varying severity. 

Bringing (All) The Energy

The Sask. Party chose to give a shout-out to both traditional and non-traditional sectors in the 2024 budget, but the nuclear sector came away with the biggest win. The Small Modular Reactor Investment Fund gets another $242.1 million and retains all its investment income, in addition to new allocations in future years that will be indexed to electricity revenue. Renewable generators also have good reason to cheer, with a $140 million grant being given to SaskPower to execute clean PPAs and customer-focused efficiency programs. Meanwhile, the Petroleum Innovation Incentive and Oil and Gas Processing Investment Incentive got increases to their funding caps and five year program extensions, and there is a new Saskatchewan Critical Mineral Innovation Incentive to help spur more big digs for battery components. There’s a new 370 MW gas-fired plant through SaskPower, too.

Raging (Ideal)? Reactions

Predictably, the Official Opposition was sour on the Sask party’s 2024 efforts. Families are hurting, bills aren’t getting paid, and it’s “an election-year budget,” per the NDP’s leadership. Elsewhere, there were more NDP barbs on making education worse, a lack of commitment on health care, and a government that is out of ideas – and out of touch. Joining the fray was Saskatchewan Teachers Federation and the Saskatchewan Taxpayers Federation, with the latter decrying the lack of focus on slaying the debt and deficit. Hefty criticisms to be sure, but possibly to the government’s advantage. An unapologetically expansionist budget that touched off harsh but differing comments from unions and right-wing upstarts leaves the Sask. Party in the perceived centre, with ample time to sell itself as a moderating, big-tent force for good.

The Race to October

For a four-term government, the Sask. Party is holding strong, but not without its warning signs. Tightening polls, labour unrest, and inevitable voter fatigue are contributing to a more interesting fall vote than previously thought. For now, the main question is whether this budget will move the needle, and keep the governing party in place for a fifth straight term. Time will tell. In the meantime, contact a New West partner or consultant for more insights to help navigate it all.