The Weekly Roundup - 2024 Lookahead

After a break for the holidays, today’s edition of the Roundup is an opportunity to look ahead to what we anticipate will be the main stories shaping Alberta and federal politics in 2024. So without further ado, let’s dive right in.

Top Federal Stories to Watch
 
Justin Trudeau leadership
Justin Trudeau won the leadership of the Liberal party in April of 2013, and has served as Prime Minister since 2015. With his own popularity and that of his party’s down in the polls, questions are swirling about whether PMJT may want to leave his party on his own terms, rather than be forced out should the party lose an election. Among his front bench and among, to borrow Trudeau’s own language “eminent Canadians”, there are certainly some kicking the tires on a potential leadership bid. There’s only one man who can decide whether he wants to continue on as leader of the Liberal party through 2024 and into the next General Election, and that’s Justin Trudeau himself.
 
Pharmacare
Negotations between the Liberal government and the NDP, joined together by a confidence-and-supply agreement are ongoing regarding development of a universal national pharmacare program. There’s a deadline of March 1, 2024 to produce legislation on pharmacare, although Canadians as of yet don’t appear to be enthusiastic about the topic. That could be due to a lack of tangible details; you can expect that if and when legislation is passed, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will be taking a victory lap on getting party policy passed, much as he did on last year’s federal dental care program.
 
Action on housing
As was mentioned in our Year in Review edition, housing affordability is a major concern for Canadians from coast to coast. Housing Minister Sean Fraser has spearheaded signing agreements with municipalities to spur action and bolster housing starts. More innovation will be needed to address the housing needs of Canadians, with little patience from the electorate on a file that has become a major wedge issue between the governing Liberals and Official Opposition Conservatives. If interest rates begin to decrease in the back half of 2024 as anticipated, that would also create some breathing room for Canadians, and in turn the government.
 
Pierre Poilievre
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has shown himself to be a formidable opponent, uniting the right and a great many disillusioned Canadians behind his criticism that, at present, many things in the country feel broken, and that he is the man to help rebuild.
 
The main question for Poilievre in 2024 is if he can continue to ride the wave of his popularity and continue to be seen as a viable alternative for Canadians to put their trust into come the next election. His team has been very effective at shaping their messaging around the affordability issues most pertinent to Canadians. It’ll be essential that the CPC stay focused on the messaging and policies that resonate with Canadians to continue leading in the polls.
 
Foreign relations
Continuing to navigate Canada’s role on the world stage will be a considerable focus for Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly and the Liberal government. Within the Liberal caucus, there’s differences of opinion on calls for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. Within NATO, Canada’s military spending continues to fall well below the target of two percent of GDP. Relations are strained with major geopolitical forces including India following the linking of the Indian government to the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in B.C., and China with allegations of foreign interference and the enduring reaction to the detention of the two Michaels.

Top Provincial Stories to Watch
 
NDP leadership race
All signs point to an early 2024 exit by NDP Leader Rachel Notley from the helm of the party she led into government in 2015. Leadership races can be distracting events for an opposition party, and emerging from the race with a unified party will be essential. Many Albertans closely associate the NDP and Rachel Notley brands; determining the party’s identity and serving as a strong government in waiting, rather than opposition, will be a major focus for whoever emerges victorious.
 
Health care reforms
The meat and potatoes of the health care reforms announced by Premier Danielle Smith in late 2023, creating four organizations to replace AHS’s current operations, offering services in continuing care, mental health and addictions, primary care, and acute care, will be set into motion this year. While the changes and restructuring are taking place over the course of two years, initial budgetary measures are expected as soon as this spring. A well-functioning health care system is a top priority for many Albertans, and with the UCP’s decision to tear apart what existed and start anew, expectations are high and patience is thin.
 
Budget 2024
The dome at the Legislature may as well be a snow globe, with how frosty Budget 2024 deliberations appear to be going. The UCP government is focused on not running a deficit, reintroducing a provincial fuel tax to bolster the coffers and considering taking their time on fulfilling the campaign commitment of implementing an income tax cut. Expect little in the way of flashy announcements or spending sprees when the budget is tabled in late February, with many references to belt tightening. Of course, if oil wanted to climb above $80/barrel, that’d help the bottom line considerably.
 
Electricity prices, reforms
Electricity prices are a tangible item for Albertans to gripe about with a bill coming in the mail every month. With electricity prices set to come down in 2024, the UCP government will be looking to capitalize on the move as a win, even if government policy doesn’t have much to do with the change. Affordability and Utilities Minister Nathan Neudorf will have a busy plate in 2024 with the end of the renewables moratorium in February, and has hinted at a provincial review into the electricity market as well as a review into the practice of economic withholding.