Weekly Roundup - May 29, 2026
Top Federal Stories
Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed the Economic Club of New York this week. At the forum he argued that Canada's push to diversify its trade ties benefits both countries, borrowing a familiar line to make the point: "Canada Strong will help make America great again." Carney pressed for new partnerships in sectors strained by global competition and pointed to auto manufacturing and critical minerals as areas where the two countries should continue working together. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre dismissed the speech in the House of Commons, characterizing Carney as indecisive about whether closer ties with the United States is a strength or a weakness.
While Washington has not formally opened negotiations with Canada, Mexican and American officials have already started gathering for talks on CUSMA. Each country faces a choice in July to renew CUSMA for another 16 years, withdraw, or trigger an annual review that could stretch out negotiation and trade uncertainty for years. Amid this uncertainty with the U.S., Prime Minister Carney remains committed to diversifying Canada’s trade, hosting China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Ottawa this week for the first such visit in a decade. Minister Wang said China could more than double Canadian exports by 2030 if Canada maintains a stable posture toward China.
More progress on export diversification was made this week as the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project in British Columbia secured its first European buyer. Germany's state-owned energy company, Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE), agreed to purchase one million tonnes of liquefied natural gas a year for up to 20 years. The deal is structured so that SEFE controls where the fuel goes. Most of it is expected to be traded on the global market rather than shipped straight to Europe. Combined with earlier agreements from Shell and TotalEnergies, five of the project's 12 million tonnes of annual capacity are now committed. Its backers expect to make a final investment decision later this year.
Steven Guilbeault has stepped down as a Member of Parliament. The former environment minister said he was at peace with the decision and would pursue climate work in other ways, citing frustrations with what he described as the rollback of climate policy under Carney. Guilbeault left cabinet last year after Ottawa signed the Alberta-Canada MOU. The resignation will trigger a byelection in Laurier-Sainte-Marie and adds to a cluster of upcoming contests.
Top Alberta Stories
Premiers gathered in Kananaskis this week for the annual Western Premiers' Conference, bringing together the leaders of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut to discuss shared priorities and advance western interests within Canada.
While the relationship between Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and British Columbia Premier David Eby has been strained for months over a proposed new West Coast pipeline, it was an exchange between Smith and Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew that captured the headlines. During the closing news conference, the two clashed over the recent Alberta court ruling that overturned approval of a separation referendum petition. Smith argued the courts need to provide greater clarity on when consultation obligations apply, while Kinew pushed back, stating that responsibility rests with the Alberta government, not petition organizers.
New West Senior Consultant, Shannon Greer, joined The Discourse podcast this week to unpack the political dynamics surrounding the Western Premiers' Conference and Alberta's growing separation debate. Last November, on The Hub's Alberta Edge podcast, Shannon weighed in alongside NWPA Partner Keith Mclaughlin on the brewing pipeline drama between BC, Alberta, and the federal government. Click here to listen to their in-depth analysis that still stands up today.
Despite the friction, the premiers found common ground on several major economic priorities. The most significant outcome of the conference was a joint report calling for major investments in western trade and transportation infrastructure. At the centre of the proposal is a "port-to-port-to-port" strategy linking the Pacific Coast, Hudson Bay and the Arctic through an integrated network of trade and transportation corridors. The premiers are urging Ottawa to support projects ranging from Trans-Canada Highway twinning and expanded access to the Ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert, to the continued development of the Port of Churchill and new Arctic transportation infrastructure.
The Premier didn’t have much time to promote the report though after the president of her own party told a Calgary radio station that the UCP would remain neutral on Alberta’s separation referendum. The comments quickly forced Premier Smith into damage-control mode, publicly reaffirming that the official position of the UCP, its caucus and its government is to remain in Canada. The party later issued its own statement backing the premier and reiterating its commitment to Alberta autonomy within Confederation, exposing the delicate balancing act Smith faces as she tries to manage growing separatist sentiment within her own political base.
Alberta’s separation debate made its way into the House of Commons on Tuesday. During Question Period, Prime Minister Mark Carney said the Clarity Act will not apply to the question Albertans are expected to vote on in October. The comment represents a significant shift from his earlier position that any referendum on provincial sovereignty would fall under the legislation which sets out the conditions under which the federal government would negotiate the separation of a province, including whether the referendum question and the resulting majority are sufficiently clear. Carney’s comments also reopened debate over what constitutes a clear majority, with Bloc Québécois MPs arguing that 50 per cent plus one should be enough.
While the Clarity Act may not apply, new polling from the Angus Reid Institute finds more than half of Albertans aren’t clear on the referendum question, considering it confusing. When asked whether Alberta should remain in Canada, 67 per cent of respondents chose to stay. When asked who they'd vote for if an election were held today, respondents were split with 46 per cent supporting the UCP and 45 per cent backing the NDP, a much tighter contest compared to polling released just weeks earlier. The findings reinforce what many already suspected, the separation debate is turning from a political sideshow into a vote-determining issue.
Top Ontario Stories
Queen’s Park was rocked by the resignation of one of Premier Ford’s longest serving and most senior cabinet ministers, Treasury Board President Caroline Mulroney. Mulroney told Ford at his Etobicoke home Sunday that she would resign from cabinet and her York-Simcoe seat effective June 5. In an emotional farewell to the legislature, she cited her father’s death and her transition to an empty nest as reasons for the departure. Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy has been named acting Treasury Board President while Long-Term Care Minister Natalia Kusendova-Bashta picks up Francophone Affairs in a parallel interim appointment. The exit will trigger a byelection in York-Simcoe.
The resignation has accelerated shuffle rumours that have been building at Queen’s Park for some time now. The question is whether there are additional cabinet ministers looking for an early exit, and how the Premier plans to shake up his front bench to backfill Mulroney’s, and potentially other, departures. Despite this, an Abacus poll released this week shows the PCs recovering to 41 per cent, up three points as the fallout from the government private jet controversy fades, with the Liberals down four points to 31 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent.
The Ford government made a significant move on the defence file this week, releasing the Framework for the Ontario Defence Industrial Strategy at CANSEC in Ottawa on May 28. Premier Ford and Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli presented the 14-page document with headline ambitions for 2035: a defence-sector workforce of 43,000 (more than triple the roughly 13,000 workers across some 300 firms today), $6 billion in added GDP and more than $400 million in annual provincial tax revenue. The Framework organizes the province’s ambitions under four pillars:
Strengthening the existing industrial base
Developing frontier technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum computing and cybersecurity
Expanding defence export reach
Building an integrated supply chain anchored in Ontario’s critical minerals, nuclear and advanced manufacturing assets.
The Framework is not a new-spending announcement. Substantive commitments are likely to come following the release of the full strategy, which is expected by the end of the year. In the meantime, the province is launching consultations that will inform the development of the strategy. Each pillar of the framework identifies items open for input, and organizations with interests in the defence sector should consider how they intend to engage with the Ontario government. Reach out now to learn how New West can help prepare your organization for this process.
Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberal Party’s leadership field continued to take shape this week. Former federal industry minister Navdeep Bains officially entered the race on Monday, not long after the party released an arbitration committee’s decision to reject Nate Erskine-Smith’s appeal of his Scarborough Southwest nomination loss. Bains launched with endorsements from several federal Liberal colleagues including former cabinet minister Karina Gould and MPs Yasir Naqvi and Iqwinder Gaheer. Bains was joined on Thursday by Ajax MPP Rob Cerjanec, who entered the race with a pledge to rebuild the party. With Bains and Cerjanec now in the field alongside Etobicoke MPP Lee Fairclough and former political staffer Dylan Marando, the contest for the next Liberal leader is shaping up to be a hotly contested fight.
On the Radar: British Colombia
A new leader of the B.C. Conservative Party will be named this weekend, bringing an end to a leadership race that could shape the future of conservative politics in the province. Voting has now closed, with party members choosing between five candidates: Iain Black, Caroline Elliott, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Yuri Fulmer and Peter Milobar.
The race has highlighted a growing debate within the party over its identity and electoral strategy following its breakthrough performance in the 2024 provincial election. While Black and Milobar have campaigned on a more moderate, big-tent approach aimed at attracting centrist voters, Elliott, Findlay and Fulmer have positioned themselves closer to the party's populist wing, a clearer break from the province's traditional centre-right political establishment.
Whoever emerges victorious on Saturday will inherit a party that has rapidly grown from the political fringe into the Official Opposition, but one that still faces internal tensions between its moderate and populist factions.
Polling conducted by Pallas Data at the beginning of May offers a glimpse into how the race may unfold, with Caroline Elliott leading on first-ballot support at 31 per cent, followed by Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 24 per cent and Iain Black at 18 per cent. The survey suggests the contest is being shaped by regional and demographic divides within the party. Elliott's strength is concentrated in Metro Vancouver where she holds a commanding lead, while Findlay performs better in the Fraser Valley, Interior, North and on Vancouver Island. The survey also found a significant number of members do not have a second-choice candidate, meaning many ballots could be exhausted as lower-ranked candidates are eliminated.
An important wrinkle in the race is that the winner is not determined by the raw popular vote. Under the party's rules, each of B.C.'s 93 electoral districts is assigned 100 points regardless of how many members live there, with candidates awarded points based on their share of the vote in each riding. Those points are then added together province-wide and redistributed through a preferential ballot system until one candidate surpasses 50 per cent. That means a candidate can win the leadership without winning the most votes overall if their support is distributed more efficiently across the province.
The results will be announced Saturday evening. New West is watching closely and ready to help clients navigate the political and policy implications of the party’s leadership transition.
The New West Team is ready to guide clients through this uncertain time in Canadian politics.
