Sometimes the Status Quo is Interesting
How strong is the rising tide of Alberta separatism? Is the NDP political fortress of Edmonton shaky? Do Edmontonians accept Naheed Nenshi?
These were the main storylines of Alberta’s three by-elections. Let’s break it down.
Heading into the by-election there were 46 UCP MLAs, 36 from the NDP, two independents, and three vacant seats in the legislature. Of the ridings without a representative, two were previously held by the NDP and one by the UCP.
With the votes now counted and unofficial results released, all three stayed status quo – but that doesn’t mean this was a boring by-election. Here’s why these results matter and what we’re watching for next.
Separatists get muted results in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, finish behind NDP
By-elections rarely attract provincial attention – much less national – but people across Canada were watching the result in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills to see if separatism is gaining momentum.
Leader of the Republican Party of Alberta, Cam Davies, was looking to become the second separatist party candidate to be elected to the Alberta Legislature. The first coming more than four decades ago when Gordon Kesler of the Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta won, what-was-then the riding of Olds-Didsbury, with 42 per cent of the vote.
A stronger showing in this by-election could have put wind in the sails of separatism, but with only 18 per cent of the vote - the Republican Party’s leader finished behind the NDP candidate Bev Toews who received 20 per cent – in one of Alberta’s most conservative ridings. The UCP appointed their candidate, Tara Sawyer, who is a farmer, and business owner in the community. In the end she took home 61 per cent of the vote.
Sawyer’s win comes as Alberta’s Premier walks a tight rope between separation concerns, economic uncertainty, and national unity conversations. Premier Danielle Smith has been clear she doesn’t support separating from Canada, but wouldn’t take the topic off the table because, “if there isn’t an outlet, it creates a new party.”
We’re watching closely to see if this result tempers separatist sentiment or if it’s still a strong topic of conversation during the Premier’s ‘Alberta Next’ panel which is set to be announced on Tuesday.
Naheed Nenshi finally secures a seat with strong results in NDP heartland
Almost a year to the day Naheed Nenshi was elected leader of the Alberta New Democrats, he’s earned a seat in the Legislature. He’s the third leader of the party to represent Edmonton-Strathcona, following in the footsteps of former leaders Rachel Notley and Raj Pannu.
Running in the safe-as-it-gets Strathcona riding meant the party didn’t have to spend precious resources getting their leader elected. It also gave Nenshi the opportunity to build a greater profile in Alberta’s second largest city – which has been solidly NDP for over a decade now.
Notably, the former Calgary mayor who is new to the Edmonton scene, secured 82 per cent in the central city riding – which is a greater vote share than Rachel Notley received in the last election. Strathcona is Alberta’s most left-leaning district and there were questions of whether Nenshi, who lacks both ties to the riding and is seen as more centrist, would hold the rock-solid support that Rachel Notley did for 16 years. The answer, at least based on tonight’s result, is yes.
Christina Gray, MLA for Edmonton-Mill Woods has led the NDP Opposition in the legislature, but Nenshi will take over the reigns when the House returns at the end of October.
Nenshi has struggled to drive his own narrative over the past 12 months but now with a seat in the legislature, and with solid results overall for the NDP in the three by-elections, it may give the leader an opportunity to turn the page and break through.
Time will tell.
NDP holds ground amid high stakes in suburban Edmonton
While there were six names on the ballot to replace Rod Loyola, who stepped down as an NDP MLA in March to run in the federal election, it was a two-way race. Loyola won the seat in 2023 with 61 per cent of the vote, but the UCP gained ground and were looking to flip this fast-growing suburban riding.
The stakes were high for the NDP as Edmonton has been a stronghold for the party, but recent polls showed support is slipping. A loss would have been a huge blow to Nenshi and put a damper on the momentum he gained by winning his own seat.
MLA-elect, Gurtej Singh Brar, who is a former radio and TV host will get a crash course in retail politics over the summer before joining his new NDP colleagues in the Alberta Legislature for the start of the fall session on October 27.
With the Edmonton by-election wins under their belt and the leader heading to the House, the NDP will be looking to hold the UCP’s feet to the fire this fall. However, Premier Smith’s popularity has held steady and with a strong new addition to her caucus, the UCP is a force to be reckoned with. The road to the 2027 general election is already shaping up to be a battle and New West will be there every step of the way.
New West Public Affairs can help you navigate these changes and forge meaningful relationships with new MLAs. For support building a strong government relations plan, contact us today.
