Weekly Roundup - July 11, 2025
Trade Tensions Escalate
As business and political leaders traded suits for cowboy boots at the Calgary Stampede this week, trade tensions were heating up between Canada and the United States. In a surprise Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1. Trump’s message once again accused Canada of contributing to the fentanyl crisis, criticized dairy supply management, and complained about persistent trade deficits.
Prime Minister Mark Carney responded swiftly, pledging to “steadfastly defend our workers and businesses” while reaffirming Canada’s commitment to cross-border cooperation on opioids and trade. He struck a diplomatic tone, emphasizing unity and international partnerships.
Provincial Premiers quickly rallied. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, fresh off signing an economic partnership agreements with Ontario, joined Premier Doug Ford and others in urging Ottawa to counter the tariff threat. Ford stressed urgency: “Now more than ever, we need the federal government working around the clock to secure a deal and eliminate American tariffs.”
Labour and business leaders echoed those concerns. Unifor President Lana Payne called Trump’s move “coercion,” demanding Canada “hit back hard.” The Canadian Federation of Independent Business urged calm, advising businesses to prepare strategically while warning that tariff wars harm consumers on both sides.
Beneath Trump’s trademark social media hyperbole, there are early signs this is another in a series of escalating negotiation tactics ahead of a shifting deadline to secure a new Canada-U.S. economic and security deal. U.S. officials quietly signaled that USMCA-compliant goods could be exempt, and that energy and potash exports would continue at their existing 10% tariff.
Even so, the uncertainty and impact of the threat is real. Manufacturers, particularly in automotive and metals, face disruptions to integrated supply chains. Retailers warn of higher prices and strained inventories. Any escalation could force companies to pivot quickly.
With a new deadline of August 1 approaching, Canadian officials are working to de-escalate. Premier Smith, who has often been out of step with her Ontario counterpart and the Federal Government on US trade tactics, cautioned against retaliatory tariffs and called on the Carney government to “immediately drop the Trudeau-era anti-resource development laws holding our economy back and work at all haste to approve multiple pipelines, rail expansions, and transmission lines going west, east, and north to diversify and grow our export markets around the world.”
Stampede and Politics Collide
It’s the second weekend of the Calgary Stampede, a celebration of western culture that also serves as a major political and business convergence. Politicians, business and labour leaders, and stakeholders from across Canada are in town for BBQs, pancake breakfasts, and a flurry of behind-the-scenes meetings and less formal conversations.
New West was proud to kick things off with our annual Stampede party last Thursday. Thank you to everyone who joined us for a memorable evening.
Prime Minister Carney made his Stampede debut last Friday, touring the rodeo grounds and attending the Rangeland Derby, where he received a mixed reception. At a Saturday pancake breakfast hosted by the United Brotherhood of Carpenters, his pancake-flipping skills drew chuckles. Later, he mingled with stakeholders at a Canadian Chamber of Commerce reception in downtown Calgary.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre also made his presence known. Alongside parade appearances and pancake breakfasts, he hosted the annual Conservative Party BBQ, drawing a large crowd in Heritage Park. Now campaigning for a seat in Battle River–Crowfoot, Poilievre promised to amplify Western concerns in Parliament.
NDP Interim Leader Don Davies was on the ground for kickoff events and met with Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi. He was joined by caucus members, including Heather McPherson, who is rumored to be preparing a federal NDP leadership bid. The federal NDP has now confirmed its leadership race will officially launch in September and conclude in March during a national convention in Winnipeg.
Top Federal Stories
Following a commitment to dramatically increase Canadian defence spending to five per cent of GDP, the Carney government is shifting to belt-tightening mode. On July 7, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne directed cabinet ministers to propose ambitious spending cuts: 7.5% in 2026, 10% in 2027, and 15% by 2028–29. Ministers seeking new funding must now demonstrate alignment with cabinet priorities and show they’ve exhausted internal reallocations.
Days later, Treasury Board President Shafqat Ali announced a new Red Tape Reduction Office. Departments and agencies now have 60 days to report on progress cutting outdated or duplicative regulations—especially those overlapping with provincial rules.
The House is technically on summer break, but politics never sleeps. On Monday, MPs unanimously agreed to study a controversial $1 billion federal loan to BC Ferries for four China-built ships. The Transport Committee will hear testimony within 30 days from Ministers Gregor Robertson and Chrystia Freeland, Canada Infrastructure Bank CEO Ehren Cory, and BC Ferries CEO Nicholas Jimenez.
Top Alberta Stories
Premier Danielle Smith signed two memoranda of understanding (MOUs) with Ontario Premier Doug Ford this week, focusing on interprovincial trade, infrastructure, and energy exports. The signing took place at Smith’s annual Stampede pancake breakfast, also attended by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Prime Minister Carney, appearing at the same event later, received a lukewarm welcome - both in person and online. After praising the Alberta-Ontario MOUs as “nation-building,” Smith responded by reiterating her demand to scrap the federal emissions cap, posting, “Let’s axe this cap immediately and watch jobs and investment soar.”
The Stampede wraps up Sunday, but Premier Smith won’t be slowing down. The first in-person session of her “Alberta Next” panel will take place on Tuesday in Red Deer. The consultation will gather public input on Alberta’s role in Confederation, including equalization, immigration, and tax collection. The final town hall is set for Calgary on September 29, with popular ideas possibly headed to a 2026 referendum.
Meanwhile, Alberta’s new Regional Health Advisory Councils were announced this week—150 members across 71 communities. These councils will provide input to the province’s four new health agencies: Primary Care Alberta, Acute Care Alberta, Assisted Living Alberta, and Recovery Alberta. Albertans can submit 200-word feedback emails to shape local health planning.
Top Ontario Stories
Premier Ford and Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce were in lockstep with their Alberta counterparts in Calgary this week, with a strong commitment develop new pipelines and rail lines connecting Alberta’s resources to Ontario, and a pledge to use Ontario-made steel. The agreement also signals efforts to boost interprovincial trade in alcohol and vehicles - Alberta will purchase more Canadian-made cars for its government fleet.
Back home, Ontario Environment Minister Todd McCarthy and Alberta’s Rebecca Schulz jointly urged Ottawa to repeal key environmental laws, including the Impact Assessment Act and carbon pricing rules. McCarthy is now under fire from First Nations leaders after including a clean water bill, C-61, in the list of laws to repeal.
Ontario's education system is undergoing major changes. Four school boards, including the Toronto District School Board, are now under provincial supervision due to alleged mismanagement. Meanwhile, Ontario colleges face a severe crisis: nearly 10,000 job losses, 600 cancelled programs, and several campus closures due to a steep drop in international student enrollment.
Meanwhile, political turbulence continues for the Ontario Liberals. Leader Bonnie Crombie faces growing internal dissent ahead of a mandatory leadership review in September. Despite executive support, federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith is reportedly exploring a leadership challenge following the party’s poor 2025 election showing.
Premier Ford's office also saw major staffing changes this week. Deputy Chief of Staff Travis Kann has been promoted to Principal Secretary, filling the void left by recent departures including Ivana Yelich, Rahul Bedi, and Jenna Bendayan.
Upcoming Events Calendar
July 15, 2025: Alberta Next panel Red Deer town hall
July 16, 2025: Alberta Next panel Sherwood Park / Edmonton town hall
July 21-23, 2025: Council of the Federation Meeting
August 18, 2025: Battle River-Crowfoot federal by
September 15, 2025: House of Commons returns
October 20, 2025: Ontario Legislature returns
October 27, 2025: Alberta Legislature returns
January 29-31, 2026: Conservative Party of Canada National Convention
