𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Election Results 2025

The New Parliament-An Octopus Riding a Bicycle While Headed Toward a Cliff

No one projected this outcome. No one. Certainly not the pollsters and pundits. How we got here is fascinating stuff, but we’ll leave it to the media to dissect the surges and swoons of the campaign. Our job is to figure out what happens with the results, the talented octopus on the bike mentioned above. Let’s consider where we are.

Pending official results after recounts, the Mark Carney-led Liberals fell four seats short of a majority, capturing 168 seats and 43.5% of the popular vote, an outcome that was both an impressive comeback and an aching disappointment. They held onto or picked up seats in every province and territory except Nunavut. At 41.4% the Conservatives picked up their highest popular vote in 47 years while gaining 20 new seats and yet their leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost his own seat. He has committed to stay on as Conservative leader, though he may well be challenged. As the Conservative Party of Canada goes through the results and heads back to the Official Opposition benches, they must also contend with the long simmering feud between the federal party and the PC Party of Ontario. There’s been no love lost between Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s team and Poilievre’s camp, but the feud reached a boiling point last night when former Ford staffer-turned CPC MP Jamil Jivani called Doug Ford “a problem for Ontario and for Canada” and an “opportunist” in an interview with CBC. The conservative infighting runs counter to the strong showing by the CPC in vote rich Ontario, where the party outperformed polls and secured close to 45% of the vote in the province, higher than the 43% the PC Party of Ontario garnered in their recent majority election win. If fences could be mended between the two conservative camps, you have to wonder how many more seats the CPC could secure in the province.

Shifting Ground in Parliment

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat and his party was crushed. The NDP lost all but 7 seats, down from the 24 they held in the previous parliament. The bar for party status, which comes with additional privileges including committee appointments and research funding is 12. They also lost gobs of popular support, most of it going to the Liberals though in some ridings it was the Conservatives who benefitted, a seeming confirmation that the Conservative appeal to working class voters resonated.

The Bloc Québécois bent but did not break in Quebec, holding back the Liberals and giving the Bloc almost enough support with 23 seats to have the balance of power in this jigsaw puzzle of a parliament. Almost, but not quite. Once again, the Liberals will need the support of the NDP, now leaderless, to stay in power. This is bad news for energy companies hoping Mr. Carney would push forward on vague pledges to both unlock Canada’s oil and gas wealth while also lowering greenhouse gas emissions. But it’s also true that the NDP cannot afford to push the Liberals into another election anytime soon. They need to elect a new leader first before they can attract donors. They must also show that they have their own policy and principles to stand on and are still relevant without party status. To have any hope of success they must un-knot all of these contradictions simultaneously and they must do so while both the Liberals and Conservatives look to prey on their weakness.

Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, also held onto her riding. In a parliament so fragile and oddly constructed, each seat matters. The same can be said for the previous minority government under Prime Minister Trudeau, but the previous parliament wasn’t held together by the fear that the Americans were dead set on pulling Canada into their economic orbit and even absorbing Canada. That fear may keep parliament cooperating even when there is little desire to do so. In Alberta the fear of Ottawa may stoke the fires of separatism, already burning hot in the countryside. A special caucus meeting has been called by Premier Danielle Smith Friday to discuss what Alberta will do now. Prime Minister Carney will need to step carefully as he reaches out to Premiers’ Smith and Moe so as not to throw Alberta crude on the fire, but without the ability to deliver on big promises without the support of other parties. This raises the question, would the Liberal government ever work with the provinces and the federal Conservatives to get a deal on climate and energy? Last night both Carney and Poilievre spoke to the importance of unity in the face of the American threat. Could this octopus parliament pull everyone together?

What’s Next

Sources have shared with the Globe and Mail that Carney intends to assemble a cabinet no larger than 30 people (down from Trudeau’s 37) within the next two weeks, an accelerated timeline to meet the moment. His selection of ministers will matter more than at any point in a generation. If the PM asks Jonathan Wilkinson or Steven Guilbeault to be anywhere near an energy or environment file, the west will revolt. The PM has the chance to build a cabinet that promotes unity, meaning giving prominent cabinet roles to the new Liberal MPs in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while also managing the impossible expectations that exist in every caucus. Then comes bringing back parliament (expected by late May), electing a new Speaker, introducing a Throne Speech that will matter like few others ever have, introducing a Budget (expected before Canada Day), and forming the committees. Then it’s down to hard negotiations with the Americans (but without forgetting the Chinese and a hundred other files). Good luck to Prime Minister Carney. He will need all the luck he can get.

In the Media

After an outcome no one projected, New West CEO Monte Solberg joined CBC's Eyeopener to give his thoughts on the federal election results and what's next for Canada.

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