Weekly Roundup - May 2, 2025
With the federal election over, the hard work of actually governing can begin. There’s certainly no shortage of challenges ahead for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s re-elected minority government. While Elections Canada hasn’t finalized the result, it appears Carney’s Liberals secured 168 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons – four short of the 172 needed for a majority.
The Conservative Party made significant gains Monday night, winning 144 seats – including 53 seats in the ever-important province of Ontario. But for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre it was a bittersweet night, losing his own riding of Carleton to his Liberal opponent Bruce Fanjoy. It’s a disappointing setback for Conservatives, though not likely to last long, as re-elected Conservative MP Damien Kurek has announced he will resign his Alberta seat to allow Poilievre to run in a byelection and re-enter the House of Commons. An Official Opposition leader to hold down the fort in the House of Commons will also need to be selected by caucus in short order.
The Bloc Québécois posted disappointing results, winning just 23 seats, down from the 33 they held before the election. Still, that was a better result than the NDP, who won just 7 seats, losing – among many – leader Jagmeet Singh’s seat of Burnaby Central. The writing on the wall was evident, and Singh announced he will be stepping down as party leader as soon as an interim leader can be selected.
The Green Party is returning just one MP to the House of Commons. Despite the odds, Elizabeth May continues to be the perennial winner in Saanich-Gulf Islands. The party lost their only other seat in Kitchener Centre by less than 400 votes to the Conservatives, and co-leader Jonathan Pedneault was unsuccessful in his race in Outremont and subsequently resigned from his leadership role.
Despite falling short of a majority Monday night, Carney’s Liberals will have a strong minority when the House of Commons returns. In a news conference today, Carney stated he has no intention of seeking a formal agreement with the NDP to support his government. The Liberals face a significantly weakened Bloc – which isn’t looking to overthrow the government anytime soon, a leaderless NDP, and a Conservative Party that – for the time being – will be focused on regrouping and finding a way to return Poilievre to the House of Commons.
Today’s Carney press conference, his first following the election, laid out his government’s priorities and what Canadians can expect to see in the coming weeks and months. First on the docket is a trip to Washington, D.C. where Carney will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. The two leaders have a lot to discuss after pressing pause on their relationship including tariffs, fentanyl, trade, national security and defence spending.
Carney also announced his new cabinet will be sworn in the week of May 12. Who is in and who is out will be closely watched as the Prime Minister looks to balance regional interests and pour cold water on the re-emerging separatist question in Western Canada (more on that later). Parliament will return on May 26, followed by a Speech from the Throne delivered by His Majesty King Charles III on May 27.
Carney reiterated the laundry list of promises his party committed to during the campaign, but two that the Liberals will be on the clock for are the elimination of internal trade barriers as well as a middle-class tax cut, both to be implemented by Canada Day. It’s an aggressive timeline, but the Prime Minister appears determined to hit the ground running in his First Session.
Top Ontario Stories
Ontario Premier Doug Ford expressed his frustration with federal Conservative MPs this week, declaring he’s “done with all this stuff,” following criticism from Pierre Poilievre’s caucus. The long-standing spat erupted again after reelected Conservative MP and former Ford staffer Jamil Jivani accused Ford of undermining the federal campaign and being a “hype man” for the Liberals. Ford fired back, pointing out that Pierre Poilievre had done nothing to help the PCs win the Ontario election earlier this year. Ford claimed Poilievre’s office specifically ordered MPs not to congratulate the provincial Tories on their election victory.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy announced Ontario’s 2025-26 budget will be tabled May 15, with Trump’s tariffs taking centre stage. "They loomed large over the federal election. They loomed large in our election," Bethlenfalvy noted, emphasizing the province will work closely with Prime Minister Mark Carney's government to protect against tariffs and eliminate interprovincial trade barriers. The budget comes at a time when the province’s Financial Accountability Office is warning tariffs could trigger a “modest recession.”
Some parts of Ontario are already feeling the impact of tariffs. General Motors announced production cuts at its Oshawa assembly plant, citing "forecasted demand and the evolving trade environment.” Similarly, Stellantis announced their Windsor assembly plant will close for a week beginning May 5, temporarily laying off 3,800 workers. Premier Ford called the GM announcement "extremely tough" for autoworkers and pledged to continue fighting "to attract new investment, secure good-paying jobs and support workers and their families."
No stranger to controversy, Premier Ford sparked his latest by vowing to appeal a court injunction that temporarily halted the removal of bike lanes on three major Toronto roadways. During his announcement, Ford railed against "unelected" judges and called judicial independence "a joke," suggesting Ontario should consider U.S.-style elections for judges. Attorney General Doug Downey was out later to spin the Premier’s comments, clarifying that electing judges is not something the government is pursuing, through acknowledging the Premier's frustration as stemming from real concerns about the justice system.
Also fresh off their own election victory, Ford’s PCs are making good on their election promises. The Ford government is moving ahead with plans for a tunnel under Highway 401 by issuing an RFP for a two-year feasibility study. The proposed tunnel could stretch from Mississauga to Scarborough, with Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria confirming the government is "very committed" to the project. Meanwhile, Municipal Affairs Minister Rob Flack reintroduced two pieces of legislation to standardize codes of conduct for municipal councillors and strengthen accountability measures as well as to tackle homeless encampments.
With so much economic uncertainty, provinces across Canada will be looking to tighten their fiscal belts. In a sign of the times, Education Minister Paul Canadra is taking a hard line with Ontario school boards, threatening to take over the Toronto District School Board if trustees don't balance their $58 million deficit. Calandra has already ordered financial probes at several boards and placed Thames Valley District School Board under provincial supervision. The education file has rarely been an easy one, and this may be the first salvo in what's shaping up to be a battle over funding levels for students and teachers in Ontario.
Top Alberta Stories
The day after the federal election, Premier Danielle Smith issued a statement congratulating Prime Minister Mark Carney on his victory and extending an invite to reset the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta. The offer comes after the Premier issued a pre-campaign list of demands for the Prime Minister, including guaranteeing Alberta full access to unfettered oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west. Today, she’s holding a special caucus meeting to chart Alberta’s path forward, which could include a conversation about striking her promised post federal election panel.
Separatist speculation and sentiment are swirling this week with an assist from the Alberta Government introducing sweeping legislation that would change provincial referendum, petition and recall thresholds. If passed it’ll suddenly be much easier for a referendum to be held on separation, with 177,000 signatures being the new threshold, down from the current 600,000. The bill also proposes to bring back corporate and union donations, ban voting tabulator machines, and increase third-party election advertising spending.
The Alberta NDP was quick to launch a set of digital ads calling the Premier a separatist, while Premier Smith has been consistent in saying she’s still playing for Team Canada, if Team Canada plays for Team Alberta.
By Thursday, that balancing act hit a new pitch. Flanked by cabinet ministers, Smith went back to the tried and tested playbook, taking aim at Ottawa’s draft Clean Electricity Regulations and warning they could trigger winter blackouts and leave Albertans “freezing in the dark.” Alberta is now launching a constitutional challenge, arguing the rules are unreliable, unaffordable, and based on future tech that doesn’t yet exist.
Meanwhile, the government is in the final stretch of its health care overhaul. Bill 55, the Health Statutes Amendment Act, proposes changes to five pieces of legislation. The reforms would shift immunizations and disease control to Primary Care Alberta, move oversight to Alberta Health, and dismantle public health boards in favour of provincial appointees, among other objectives. A new shared-services body is being created to support the four new agencies. Health Minister Adriana LaGrange says this ensures care “when and where” it’s needed. Critics argue it centralizes power without fixing access.
Independent MLA Peter Guthrie who was kicked out of caucus April 16 continues to garner attention tabling handwritten cabinet notes in the Legislature and filing documents with the Auditor General.
Behind the scenes, changes are coming to the senior public service. Rae-Ann Lajeunesse will become Deputy Minister of Health, while Mark Kleefeld steps in as Deputy Minister of Infrastructure, and Liam Stone takes Deputy Minister of Intergovernmental Relations. All take effect next week.
Aside from Edmontonians wearing blue and orange to cheer on the Oilers after they made it through the first round of the playoffs, downtown Edmonton will be painted orange this weekend as the NDP assembles for their first convention since Naheed Nenshi became leader. When he’ll have the chance to run for a seat in the legislature remains to be seen with a June 30 deadline looming; the UCP has now nominated their candidate for the Edmonton-Strathcona by-election, Darby Crouch to go up against Nenshi. The UCP government may opt to call the Edmonton-Ellerslie by-election to replace Rod Loyola at the same time.
Upcoming Events Calendar
May 6, 2025: Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with President Donald Trump in D.C.
May 13-15, 2025: Alberta Legislature spring session ends
May 15, 2025: Ontario budget tabled
May 20-22, 2025: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting
May 26, 2025: Federal Parliament returns
May 27, 2025: Speech from the Throne delivered by His Majesty King Charles III
June 5, 2025: Ontario Legislature spring session ends
June 15-17, 2025: G7 Leaders' summit in Kananaskis, AB
June 20, 2025: Federal Parliament spring session ends
