Weekly Roundup - May 9, 2025
It’s been less than four months since Mark Carney launched his Liberal leadership bid on a snowy January day in Edmonton. Progressing from leadership race to general election, and now into the business of governing, including a brief visit to Washington, D.C. to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Carney is gearing up to appoint a cabinet on Tuesday, followed by return of the Parliament on May 26, and a Speech from the Throne on May 27. In addition to what looks to be a busy parliamentary sitting, the Prime Minister will be sitting down with Canada's Premiers for a first ministers' meeting in Saskatoon June 1-2, before hosting the G7 leaders in Kananaskis June 15-17. The proverbial clock will be counting down as well for Carney’s self-imposed July 1 deadline to dismantle inter-provincial trade barriers by Canada Day.
Amidst all the activity, these are the top trends we're watching here at New West that decision makers should be aware of.
Carney stands firm in White House meeting
Prime Minister Mark Carney visited the White House on Tuesday for his first face-to-face meeting with President Donald Trump since winning the election. The moment that stood out most to Canadians was Carney's challenge of Trump's repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, stating that Canada "is not for sale" and "won't be for sale, ever."
The meeting was cordial despite underlying tensions over trade policy, with both leaders complimenting each other. "I think we have a lot of things in common," Trump remarked, while Carney emphasized opportunities for partnership. However, when pressed about his comments that Canada should become the 51st state, Trump responded with "never say never."
At a post-meeting press conference at the Canadian Embassy, the Prime Minister described his conversations with the U.S. President as very comprehensive and constructive, noting that the two leaders agreed to continue discussions at the upcoming G7 Summit in June.
Despite the tone, no breakthrough on tariffs was achieved. Trump made clear the U.S. has no immediate plans to remove the punitive duties, insisting America maintains negotiating leverage as "the market where everyone wants to be."
What’s old is new again for Conservatives
The Conservative Party has officially appointed Andrew Scheer as interim Parliamentary Opposition leader following Pierre Poilievre's loss in his Ottawa-area riding. The party gathered in Ottawa earlier this week to discuss next steps and analyze their election performance.
While the Conservatives increased their seat count by about a dozen in Ontario and achieved their highest vote share in decades resulting in 144 seats nationally, divisions have emerged within the party over their election strategy. Despite internal conflicts, it appears that the caucus is largely united behind Pierre Poilievre to stay on as party leader, giving him the time and space he needs to focus on winning the by-election in Battle River - Crowfoot. The next hurdle for Poilievre to overcome will be solidifying his leadership with the party membership ahead of a mandated leadership review at the next party convention.
The NDP is picking up the pieces following the election
The NDP federal council officially named Don Davies as interim party leader on May 5, following Jagmeet Singh's election night resignation. The party suffered devastating losses in the April 28 election, winning just seven seats across the country.
The federal NDP is now facing the challenge of rebuilding. According to party officials, the party's federal council will meet "in the near future" to lay out a plan for a leadership race. Former NDP MP and BC Cabinet Minister, Nathan Cullen, suggests the party needs a leadership race that will ensure multiple serious candidates are able to raise interest and money. Another consideration will be timing. Brian Topp, a former national campaign director and party president is calling for a short race, given the Liberal's minority government.
Every vote counts… and counts again
The ballot count isn't quite done yet. A judge has approved Liberal candidate Irek Kusmierczyk’s application for a judicial recount in the closely contested Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore riding. Elections Canada has also confirmed that judicial recounts are expected in three additional ridings where vote margins were slimmer than 0.1% between candidates.
In a separate administrative matter, Elections Canada acknowledged that 822 special ballots cast by electors in 74 electoral districts were mistakenly left with the returning officer in Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, though officials have indicated this error would not have affected the overall election outcome.
Top Ontario Stories
Premier Doug Ford is seeking federal support for provincial infrastructure priorities, highlighted in a letter sent this week to Prime Minister Carney. Those priorities include developing the Ring of Fire mining project in northwestern Ontario, expanding nuclear power generation, a deep sea port on James Bay, new GO Transit service in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, and perhaps most controversially, the proposed Highway 401 tunnel.
Federal-provincial relations are the backdrop to the provincial budget that Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will be tabling next week. He has already signalled that the provincial budget is unlikely to be balanced as previously promised, citing the need for tariff relief. The financial impact of the trade dispute with the United States has forced a reconsideration of fiscal priorities as the province prepares for economic disruption.
In advance of Thursday's budget tabling, the Ford government has rolled out a number of pre-budget announcements to telegraph its priorities. These announcements include an investment of an additional $300 million to support the expansion of community-based primary care teaching clinics in communities and $11 billion in relief to businesses impacted by U.S. tariffs.
In a major energy announcement, Premier Doug Ford's government gave Ontario Power Generation approval to begin construction on Canada's first small modular reactor, to be built adjacent to the existing Darlington nuclear plant. The project, with an estimated total cost of $20.9 billion for four reactors, represents Ontario's first new nuclear build in a generation and positions the province as a global leader in next-generation nuclear technology.
Other major commitments expected to be in the provincial budget include $1 billion over three years to expand the Skills Development Fund, and an additional $1.3 billion to expand the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit. Just how much money the Ontario government is planning to spend, and on which priorities will be closely watched this coming Thursday. Keep an eye on your inbox for New West’s breakdown of the Ontario budget.
Top Alberta Stories
The week began with Premier Danielle Smith delivering a live address to Albertans on the province’s path forward following the election of a fourth consecutive federal Liberal government. The Premier expressed frustration with the direction the federal government has taken over the past decade and announced she will appoint a special negotiating team, seeking a binding agreement with Ottawa she called an “Alberta Accord.”
During the address, Premier Smith also announced the creation of an ‘Alberta Next’ panel to explore options for the province’s future. The panel will be chaired by Premier Smith and conduct a series of in-person and online town halls. While details of the membership and scope are yet to be released, the Premier said the membership will be composed of judicial, academic and economic experts, and at its conclusion the more popular ideas are likely to be put to a provincial referendum in 2026.
The announcement comes as Alberta’s Premier walks a tight rope between rising separatism sentiment, economic uncertainty, and national unity conversations. New polling released Thursday shows that if a referendum were held tomorrow, one in four Albertans would vote to leave Canada. Premier Smith has been clear she doesn’t support separating from Canada, but won’t take the topic off the table because, “if there isn’t an outlet, it creates a new party.”
This is likely a growing concern for the Premier’s Office as three provincial by-elections loom. On Wednesday, the Province announced Nathan Cooper as Alberta’s official representative to the United States, leaving his position as the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills vacant. A new Speaker is set to be chosen by the Assembly Tuesday morning.
During an interview with Ryan Jespersen this week, the Premier promised to hold three by-elections concurrently as Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton-Ellerslie are also vacant.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills has been a conservative stronghold with Cooper winning more than 75 per cent of the vote in 2023. However, a new party could give the UCP candidate a run for their money. If history is the best guide to predicting the future, we’re reminded of the 1982 by-election in Olds-Disbury-Three Hills when Gordon Kesler of the Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta won with 42 per cent of the vote. He was the first, and is currently the only, separatist party candidate to be elected to the Alberta Legislature.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, former NDP Leader and Premier Rachel Notley won Edmonton-Strathcona with nearly 80 per cent of the vote and new leader Naheed Nenshi is expected to easily win the race which needs to be called by June 30.
New West is watching closely as the Premier works to manage both internal party and caucus dynamics, as well as public perception. Alberta Next gives voice to the frustration some Albertans and members of her caucus are feeling, without the need for binding action.
In a similar vein, the ‘Alberta Accord’ gives her time to work with Ottawa and if the Prime Minister meets the list of demands, Premier Smith can present herself as the person who gets things done for Alberta. If the demands of the accord are not met, she can position herself as the best person to stand up for Alberta’s interests against Ottawa putting Smith in a strong position ahead of the next general election and shifting the focus off the NDP’s message around health care and government accountability.
Upcoming Events Calendar
May 13-15, 2025: Alberta Legislature spring session ends
May 15, 2025: Ontario budget tabled
May 20-22, 2025: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting
May 26, 2025: Federal Parliament returns
May 27, 2025: Speech from the Throne delivered by His Majesty King Charles III
June 5, 2025: Ontario Legislature spring session ends
June 15-17, 2025: G7 Leaders' summit in Kananaskis, AB
June 20, 2025: Federal Parliament spring session ends
