Weekly Roundup - October 2, 2026
Top Federal Stories
Prime Minister Mark Carney was in Fort McMurray on Thursday to designate the Pacific coast pipeline as a project of national interest. Now called the Pacific Link, the proposed line would move one million barrels of oil a day from Alberta's oilsands to the West Coast, running alongside the existing Trans Mountain pipeline. It becomes the first project to be listed under the Building Canada Act. This designation gives the Major Projects Office one year to produce a conditions document. That single document will replace various permits the project would have otherwise needed under several federal laws, including the Fisheries Act and the Species at Risk Act.
Ottawa argues that Canada's existing pipeline network is oriented mainly toward the U.S., which leaves the country exposed as Washington increases its crude imports from Venezuela. Canada has limited access to buyers outside the U.S., so its crude sells below benchmark oil prices. Carney says narrowing that gap could be worth between $6 billion and $10 billion a year to producers. The federal and Alberta governments will cover the initial studies and consultations, estimated at $4 billion, and Ottawa plans to run a bidding process to test demand before committing to construction.
The federal and Alberta governments will both own 45 per cent of the pipeline, with Pembina Pipeline owning 10 per cent and Indigenous communities to be offered an ownership stake of at least 10 per cent. The Major Projects Office consulted more than 130 Indigenous communities near potential routes over the past three months. Even so, the government's explanatory note acknowledges that most Indigenous communities were not prepared to support the listing based on the information available. The day before the designation announcement, five chiefs from the Athabasca Tribal Council met with Carney to raise environmental and health concerns. Chief Allan Adam said the group left encouraged, although the scope of its equity and revenue sharing remains open for further discussion.
New West Senior Consultant Shannon Green joined the Capital Conversations panel on 880 CHED and QR Calgary to talk through Pacific Link pipeline announcement and why it comes at an important moment for both Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney. While on the CBC Calgary Eyeopener, New West Senior Advisor Dr. Ian Brodie argued anytime the Premier is in a camera shot with Prime Minister Carney, the most popular political leader in the province, "that's good for her and her numbers are going up."
In other energy news, government sources said earlier this week that LNG Canada is set to approve the second phase of expansion at its Kitimat, B.C., terminal. The expansion would double annual production from 14 million to 28 million tonnes. Ottawa expects the plant to attract $33 billion in private capital and become the second-largest LNG facility in the world.
Plans for high-speed rail between Calgary and Edmonton gained momentum this week, with the province announcing it will launch a formal request for proposals this fall and select a private-sector proponent by April 2027. The proposed line would connect downtown Calgary, Red Deer and downtown Edmonton, with service to both major airports and Airdrie, and trains capable of making the trip between Alberta’s two largest cities in under two hours.
Premier Smith stood alongside the Federal Environment Minister for the announcement. Ottawa committed to working with the province on planning and potential financing for the high speed rail project.
Combined with this week’s Pacific Link pipeline announcement, the high-speed rail project puts the growing partnership between Alberta and Ottawa on display as the October 19 referendum approaches.
Alberta’s business community stepped more visibly into the referendum debate this week, with some of the province’s most prominent CEOs backing a Calgary Chamber of Commerce open letter warning about the economic consequences of separation. Signatories include leaders from AltaGas, ATCO, AltaLink, Capital Power and Keyera, alongside Tourism Calgary and Calgary Economic Development.
Accompanying the letter was by analysis from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimating separation could increase trade costs by five to eight per cent, put as many as 175,000 jobs at risk, and shrink Alberta’s economy by up to $62 billion annually. The warning comes just two weeks after a separate, government-commissioned University of Calgary School of Public Policy report estimated the cost of establishing an independent Alberta could range from $50 billion to $170 billion over five years, with significant short-term economic disruption and uncertainty over the longer-term impact.
Drivers saw some relief at the pumps this week as the province’s 13-cent-per-litre fuel tax came off Thursday. The tax will remain suspended through the end of the year, marking a shift from the government’s earlier approach of providing a one-time $100 rebate. Premier Danielle Smith had initially defended the rebate over concerns that fuel tax savings wouldn’t necessarily be passed on to consumers, but later acknowledged Albertans weren’t happy with the program. After only about 1.5 million of the nearly 3.4 million eligible Albertans applied, the province announced Wednesday it was extending the rebate deadline to October 31 to give those eligible more time to apply.
Top Ontario Stories
On Monday, Premier Doug Ford told an energy industry audience in Calgary that Ontario is “ready to step up with the capital necessary to build the Northern Shield pipeline.” Speaking at an event with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Ford said Ontario would be a minority partner, but gave no dollar figure or financing structure. Smith, who believes there’s private sector interest, said she doesn’t think “government needs to step in if the private sector will.”
Ontario has presented the proposed 3,300-kilometre line, which would carry 500,000 barrels a day of Alberta crude from Hardisty, Alta. to Sarnia, Ont., as an alternative to Enbridge’s Line 5 through Michigan, and has committed to building it with Canadian steel. Currently, the project has no cost estimate, private proponent or federal designation. For steelmakers, contractors and prospective investors, the next step is an Ontario-led feasibility study of costs and commercial options, due at the end of 2026.
On steel, tariff pressures have started to hit Canadian workers directly. Steel manufacturer Stelco, owned by U.S.-based Cleveland-Cliffs, will lay off up to 500 workers in Hamilton and Nanticoke this month. In a pointed response, Prime Minister Carney said Ottawa would pursue Cleveland-Cliffs “to the fullest extent of the law,” while the federal Industry Minister noted that the company made binding commitments under the Investment Canada Act when it acquired Stelco in 2024, including keeping at least the same number of unionized workers for five years. According to Ottawa and Ontario's Finance Minister, Stelco “weren’t interested” in accepting financial support from either level of government when offered.
In an effort to insulate Canadian companies from the ongoing trade war, Ontario expanded its $1 billion Protect Ontario Financing Program to makers of alcohol, dairy products, and motorcycles, who can now apply for loans starting at $250,000. Officials told a legislative committee the program has approved 18 of 36 applications since it launched last year to the tune of about $40 million. Finance Minister Bethlenfalvy said the government is not advancing a planned investment fund for sectors such as AI, defence and advanced manufacturing “at this point in time.”
Ontario's Health Minister told a legislative committee that the province stands to lose half a billion dollars a year in funding for mental health, addictions, and home and community care when those agreements with the federal government expire in March 2027. Across the country, the expiring funding totals $1.2 billion. Provincial and territorial health ministers, who met with their finance counterparts this week, have warned of a “fiscal cliff” that would affect patients and health-sector jobs unless the federal budget renews the funding. Ottawa has not said no, but it has not said yes. In response to concerns from her provincial counterparts, a spokesperson for Federal Health Minister Michel said time-limited funding commitments allow government to review their effectiveness before deciding whether to renew or change them.
It's a busy month in Ontario politics. Looking ahead, the Premier will appear alongside Energy and Mines Minister Stephen Lecce as a keynote speaker at the Ontario Energy Conference on October 13. The Finance Minister is scheduled to speak on Ontario’s economic outlook on October 22, ahead of the Fall Economic Statement which is due by November 15. Municipal elections are October 26, and the Legislature returns October 27.
New West in the News
Matt Solberg on the impact of lost air service in Medicine Hat
New West Partner Matt Solberg spoke about efforts underway to understand how the loss of scheduled passenger air service at Medicine Hat Regional Airport is affecting local businesses.
Shannon Greer on the Pacific Link pipeline
New West Senior Consultant Shannon Greer joined the Capital Conversations panel on 880 CHED and QR Calgary to unpack the politics behind the Pacific Link pipeline announcement.
Ian Brodie on the Pacific Link pipeline
New West Senior Advisor Dr. Ian Brodie joined CBC Calgary's the Eyeopner to discuss the significance of Premier Danielle Smith sharing the stage with Prime Minister Mark Carney and why those appearances could provide a boost for the Premier.
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