Weekly Roundup - July 25, 2025
The August 1st deadline to land a trade deal with the United States, before 35 per cent tariffs kick in, is fast approaching, but don’t hold your breath for the two sides to come to an agreement. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister and Canada’s Premiers wrapped up a First Ministers’ Meeting and Council of the Federation summit in Huntsville.
Top Federal Stories
Prime Minister Mark Carney was in Huntsville this week attending a First Ministers' Meeting with Canada’s Premiers. There, he tempered expectations that a trade deal was imminent, saying that Canada "will not accept a bad deal,” and that his government will “take stock” and consider its next steps if a deal is not achieved.
Meanwhile, US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra told business leaders that President Trump thinks Canadians are "nasty” to deal with because of the countries’ travel boycotts and provincial alcohol bans. Hoekstra also lamented the fact that there are “no advocates” speaking out in defence of the Canada-US relationship, saying that the business community has been “largely silent.” While the Ambassador insists he’s still hopeful of a deal, President Trump told reporters on Friday that he thinks “Canada could be one where they just pay tariffs.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford hosted the Council of the Federation in Huntsville from July 21-23. Meetings between the Premiers appeared positive, if somewhat lacking in substance. Coming out of the summit, the provinces committed to continuing to remove internal trade barriers and promote labour mobility. The provinces also took aim at the federal government over immigration, which has been a point of contention between Ottawa and the provinces. Premiers have been critical of the federal government’s approach to immigration levels, work permits, and the pressure the growing number of asylum claimants in Canada is putting on provincial services. Prince Edward Island’s Premier Rob Lantz assumes the chair of the Council of the Federation on August 1, 2025.
The Federal government’s major projects law, Bill C-5 continues to receive mixed reception, particularly from Indigenous leaders. Prime Minister Carney met with Inuit leaders in Inuvik, yielding cautious optimism, with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President Natan Obed reporting he received assurances that the legislation won’t interrupt processes set up under modern treaties. On the other hand, concerns about coastal pipeline development resurfaced with an open letter to Prime Minister Carney from Coastal First Nations opposing any crude oil pipeline to the northwest coast. Chief Marilyn Slett declared that oil tankers remain a "non-starter."
The rules of the NDP leadership race are out. The contest officially begins August 2nd, 2025, with voting to conclude on March 28th and the leadership results to be announced on March 29th, 2026. Candidates must register and have paid the $100,000 entry fee by January 31st, 2026.
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre will face as many as 200 candidates as he campaigns to return to parliament in Battle River-Crowfoot by-election next month. The Conservative leader is calling on the Liberal government to pass legislation to ban the Longest Ballot Committee’s protest. In a letter, Poilievre said their actions amount to “a deliberate attempt to manipulate the rules, confuse voters and undermine confidence in our elections.”
Top Ontario Stories
Premier Doug Ford’s cottage country diplomacy was on full display this week as he played host to Prime Minister Mark Carney and his provincial and territorial counterparts. Premier Ford took full advantage of the opportunity by welcoming the Prime Minister to his Muskoka cottage for an evening that reportedly saw the two leaders chatting by the fireplace until well past midnight, "solving all the world's problems," as Ford put it. The tête-à-tête came during the Council of the Federation meetings in Huntsville, where Ford concluded his year-long tenure as COF chair with more than a few pointed jabs at federal authority.
Despite a renewed sense of cooperation between the federal government and the provinces, the quiet cottage country setting couldn't mask the underlying tensions that simmered over from Trudeau-era federal-provincial relations. Premier Ford emerged from the three-day summit taking aim at the federal immigration minister and ready to push the federal government on the immigration file. Premier Ford announced Ontario would explore issuing its own work permits to asylum seekers using Section 95 of the Constitution, citing the two-year federal processing delays that keep asylum seekers dependent on government support.
The Council of the Federation meetings weren't without their complications. Premier Ford faced pushback from First Nations leaders over his government's approach to major infrastructure projects, though he signalled some flexibility, indicating he could slow projects where Indigenous communities oppose them while fast-tracking those with local buy-in.
Meanwhile, Ford's Progressive Conservatives are riding high in the polls, with a new poll from Abacus showing the party at 50 per cent support. The surge comes as Ontario’s opposition parties struggle to find traction. For the Ontario NDP, it may be that many aren’t following politics during the slow summer months, but for the Ontario Liberals, internal challenges are boiling over ahead of Leader Bonnie Crombie’s leadership review.
While Ford basks in his polling numbers, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie finds herself fighting for political survival as internal party tensions exploded into public view. Federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, runner-up in the 2023 leadership race, launched a broadside email attack questioning Crombie's ability to lead the party to victory against Ford in the next election.
"Renewal starts at the top," Erskine-Smith is on the offensive, criticizing Crombie for being "unprepared for an early campaign" and failing to present a compelling vision beyond being "just another not Doug Ford party."
While the Liberals regained official party status and increased their seat count, they failed to displace the NDP as Official Opposition, and Crombie lost her own seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville. The New Leaf Liberals, aligned with Erskine-Smith's faction, are circulating petitions demanding Crombie step down if she receives less than 66 per cent support at the AGM.
Liberal MPPs have rallied around Crombie. Veteran MPP John Fraser endorsed Crombie's leadership, saying he’ll be supporting her at the AGM. Newly elected MPP Rob Cerjanec was less diplomatic, expressing his frustration with Erskine-Smith's tactics, saying, "I'm tired of this crap." Cerjanec acknowledged the campaign’s issues but is defending Crombie's commitment to learning from mistakes.
Behind the scenes, former Barrie mayor Jeff Lehman’s name is being floated as a potential successor if Crombie isn’t successful in her leadership review and as an alternative to both Crombie and Erskine-Smith. Lehman, who lost the 2022 provincial election by just 296 votes in his home riding, is seen by some as offering a pragmatic alternative that could unite the party's fractured wings.
The leadership review is scheduled for September 12-14 in Toronto.
Top Alberta Stories
Premier Danielle Smith spent the majority of the week in Huntsville, Ontario, meeting with her fellow premiers during the Council of the Federation. On the heels of an agreement signed with Ontario Premier Doug Ford during the Calgary Stampede, Premier Smith welcomed Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe as a new signatory. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) will see the three provinces work collectively to build new pipelines along a route that will connect western Canadian oil and gas to new and existing refineries in southern Ontario, as well as a new deep-sea port in James Bay.
The MOU also calls for new rail lines to connect critical mineral deposits located in Ontario’s Ring of Fire region to ports in Western Canada. However, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is notably absent from the agreement. According to the Winnipeg Sun, he declined to sign on, stating that true reconciliation requires Indigenous communities to be involved in major projects from the outset. It didn’t knock any wind out of the sails of Premier Smith though, as she also signed a new MOU with Yukon Premier Mike Pemberton to expand economic cooperation between the two jurisdictions.
While collaboration is strong across Canada, the same cannot be said of the relationship with the U.S. As the meetings wrapped up this week, Premier Smith expressed frustration over the lack of progress on renegotiating the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement saying, “I’m watching Truth Social along with everyone else, because things could change in five minutes. But what we’re hearing from the Americans, it looks like they’re putting off a full renegotiation of the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement until next year. I find that disappointing.” This reflects a broader shift in tone from Prime Minister Mark Carney and several provincial premiers, who now view some form of U.S. tariffs as the “new norm.” In response, Premier Smith’s messaging has pivoted toward securing a deal on sector‑specific tariffs by August 1.
Back in Alberta, Environment and Protected Areas Minister Rebecca Schulz announced the province is investing $49 million in 18 projects that aim to cut emissions, boost the circular economy, and drive new economic growth. Funded through the province’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) program, the projects are expected to create 1,600 jobs, reduce 3.4 million tonnes of GHG emissions by 2030, and add $233 million to the economy by 2027.
Additionally, Premier Smith, alongside Minister Nate Horner, announced a $2.8-billion contribution to the Heritage Fund that keeps the province on track to reach its goal of $250 billion by 2050.
Lastly, healthcare was also in the spotlight this week as measles cases continue to rise, with experts warning Alberta risks school-year disruptions if vaccination rates don’t improve. The province rejected calls for expanded early-age vaccinations with the Ministry of Primary and Preventive Health Services saying, “we will continue to adjust our approach as needed based on emerging data and expert advice; however, the measures currently being suggested are not supported by the latest data and are not warranted at this time."
Upcoming Events Calendar
August 14, 2025: Alberta Next panel Edmonton town hall
August 18, 2025: Battle River-Crowfoot federal by
August 26, 2025: Alberta Next panel Fort McMurray town hall
August 27, 2025: Alberta Next panel Lloydminster town hall
September 15, 2025: House of Commons returns
October 20, 2025: Ontario Legislature returns
October 27, 2025: Alberta Legislature returns
January 29-31, 2026: Conservative Party of Canada National Convention
March 29, 2026: NDP Leadership Race Results Announcement
