Weekly Roundup - August 1, 2025
Prime Minister Mark Carney's decision to recognize Palestinian statehood is a bold foreign policy decision that carries risks as trade negotiations with the United States are ongoing. There’s no extension this time, as President Trump followed through and imposed 35 per cent tariffs on non-CUSMA compliant goods after Canada and the U.S. missed the August 1 deadline to land a deal. Meanwhile, the unwieldy ballot in the Battle River-Crowfoot federal byelection necessitated Elections Canada to implement write-in ballots for Pierre Poilievre's comeback bid. Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree's Tamil Tigers controversy is an unwelcome distraction, while Ontario Premier Doug Ford makes a reversal on asylum seeker work permits and faces a court setback on bike lane removal. In Alberta, competing petitions on national unity and separation take centre stage amid a broader debate over provincial identity and federal relations.
Top Federal Stories
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s announcement that Canada intends on recognizing Palestinian statehood at September's UN General Assembly has thrown Canada’s usual play-it-safe foreign policy to the wind. Announced Wednesday following cabinet deliberations, the move aligned Canada with France and the UK in a coordinated response, but it also deepened tensions with the United States, exposing a fractured trans-Atlantic consensus on the issue.
Carney stressed that Canada has “long been committed to a two-state solution” and that the decision comes after the failure of a negotiated settlement process, citing Hamas terrorism, Israeli settlement expansion, and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza. Canada’s conditional recognition requires Palestinian Authority governance reforms, 2026 elections excluding Hamas, demilitarization, and hostage releases.
The diplomatic reaction from Isreal and the United States was also immediate. In a statement, the Israeli Ambassador rejected Canada’s endorsement of Palestinian statehood, while the Trump administration linked recognition to trade negotiations, with the president posting on Truth Social that the decision would make a trade deal "very hard" to achieve.
The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) also criticized the government’s decision. Pierre Poilievre characterized the move as "rewarding violence, not peace." Strategically, the decision gives the Conservative leader a clear policy contrast with the Liberals at a time when the party is struggling to distinguish itself from Carney’s government, which has adopted many of the CPC’s more popular ideas.
The August 1 deadline has passed without a Canada–U.S. agreement. Around midnight on Thursday, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian goods that don’t meet the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) requirements. In a statement, Carney said Canada is “disappointed” by the decision but will continue to negotiate towards a deal. He also touted progress on removing interprovincial trade barriers and developing major nation-building projects saying, “Canadians will be our own best customer.”
Dominic LeBlanc, Minister responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade, as well as the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, Marc-André Blanchar, joined Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman in Washington D.C. this week. Though the government remains tight lipped on the status of negotiations, Canada has notably not imposed additional retaliatory tariffs.
Back in Wild Rose Country, Elections Canada is implementing write-in ballots for the August 18 Battle River-Crowfoot by-election in response to the Longest Ballot Committee protests. There are more than 200 registered candidates running against Pierre Poilievre to replace former Conservative MP Damian Kurek. If printed, the ballots would have reached seven feet in length, creating insurmountable logistical challenges. Using the write-in system, voters must write candidates' full names rather than marking boxes, though Elections Canada says voter intent is what matters when counting the ballots.
Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree is back in the news - but not in a way that supports the government’s agenda. He is expected to recuse himself from involvement in an upcoming bill aimed at restricting protests near places of worship, schools, and community centres. The minister’s wife is the equality director at the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, which has publicly opposed the proposed “bubble zone” legislation.
Meanwhile, there are new revelations about Anandasangaree's support letters for a suspected Tamil Tigers member. Before he became a minister, Anandasangaree claims he wrote to the Canada Border Services Agency on behalf of a constituent in his riding whose husband had been barred from entering Canada. A lawyer for the constituent now says that the woman does not live in Anandasangaree’s Toronto-area riding as previously claimed. Carney has backed his Public Safety Minister for “being transparent about the details of that situation,” though Anandasangaree’s summer of unflattering media is certain to be an unhelpful distraction from the government’s focus on Canada-U.S. trade and major nation-building projects that promote economic growth.
The Carney government’s pharmacare silence is growing more conspicuous as only four of thirteen provinces and territories have signed deals totaling $928.5 million of the $1.5 billion budgeted. Health Minister Marjorie Michel's non-committal stance citing "new government” and “new context" suggests fiscal restraint may override the Liberals commitment to pharmacare expansion.
Top Ontario Stories
In a dramatic about-face, the Ontario government is changing its tune on plans to issue provincial work permits for asylum seekers – an idea Premier Doug Ford floated at last week’s Council of the Federation meeting in Huntsville. At the time, Ford cited a constitutional provision that would allow provinces to act on immigration, arguing it was necessary due to what he described as two-year federal processing delays that leave asylum seekers “sucking off the system, non-stop.”
Within a week the entire initiative collapsed. Federal officials disputed Ford's timeline claims, stating work permits are processed within 45 days nationally and 48 days in Ontario specifically. By July 28, Ford had reversed course, admitting his understanding came from speaking to people who said they had been subject to long waits, and conceding that he doesn’t “want to take the responsibility off the federal government." Still, the Ontario government is frustrated at the state of the federal government’s refugee system in Ontario. Labour Minister David Piccini told reporters that 280,000 cases have not been processed, including 140,000 in Ontario.
This week also saw another legal setback for the province with Superior Court Justice Paul Schabas ruling the government's bike lane removal plans unconstitutional, finding they violated Charter rights to life and security. The court’s scathing assessment cited "weak anecdotal evidence and expert opinion, which is unsupported, unpersuasive and contrary to the consensus view" from the government.
Justice Schabas found no rational connection between removing protected cycling infrastructure and reducing congestion, noting the policy would "put people at increased risk of harm and death." The Ford government plans on appealing the ruling. A statement from Transport Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria said the government was “elected by the people of Ontario with a clear mandate to restore lanes of traffic and get drivers moving by moving bike lanes off of major roads.”
The Ford government followed through on its promise to cancel the Starlink contract, terminating the $100 million agreement with Elon Musk's satellite internet service. The cancellation required paying an undisclosed "break fee" and left 15,000 homes in northern Ontario without promised high-speed internet.
On Canada–U.S. trade negotiations, Premier Doug Ford is reiterating his advice to Prime Minister Mark Carney regarding Canada’s negotiating strategy. Speaking at a press conference, Ford said he urged the Prime Minister to “not roll over” and to “hit that guy back as hard as we possibly can.” He also released a statement asserting that “Canada shouldn’t settle for anything less than the right deal.”
Amidst the political turbulence, Ford's government announced $260 million for the sixth-round of Skills Development Fund (SDF) investments on July 30. This round of funding is being targeted towards projects that support the hiring, training and upskilling of workers in manufacturing, health care, construction, automotive and other skilled trades.
Meanwhile, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie continues to fight to save her job as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. Last week Crombie appointed several loyalists to the senior leadership team at the Liberal Caucus Services Bureau – the office that provides parliamentary support to Liberal MPPs at Queen’s Park. Crombie is also on a blitz to meet with delegates who will vote on her leadership review at the upcoming AGM in September. It likely won’t be enough for Crombie to edge out a narrow victory. If history tells us anything of leadership reviews across parties in Canada, the incumbent leader needs to secure at least two thirds support from the party membership.
Top Alberta Stories
Alberta’s growing conversation around provincial identity and national unity has sparked duelling citizen initiatives, one seeking to reaffirm Alberta’s place in Canada and another pushing for a referendum on independence.
A petition launched by former Alberta deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk is aiming to make it official policy that Alberta remain part of Canada. Under the Alberta citizen initiative process, canvassers for the "Alberta Forever Canada" campaign now have three months to collect nearly 294,000 signatures in support of the proposal.
A competing proposal from Mitch Sylvestre, an executive with the Alberta Prosperity Project, aims to trigger a constitutional referendum on full separation from Canada. His question, “do you agree that the Province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?” has been referred by Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer to the courts for constitutional review. That decision drew sharp criticism from Premier Danielle Smith and Justice Minister Mickey Amery this week, who say the referral imposes unnecessary red tape.
Earlier this year, the Alberta Government passed Bill 54, the Election Statutes Amendment Act, which lowered the bar for a potential citizen-led referendum. The legislation requires a petition signed by at least 10 per cent of people who voted in the last provincial general election - down from 20 per cent of registered voters and gives applicants 120 days, rather than 90, to collect the signatures.
The competing petitions are set against the backdrop of rival roadshows. Premier Smith’s Alberta Next panel has already held town halls in Red Deer and Edmonton. The panel is returning to the province’s capital on August 14 before going north to Fort McMurray and east to Lloydminster later in the month.
While the mandate of the panel is to conduct a province-wide consultation to chart Alberta’s path forward and assert its sovereignty within a united Canada, its been criticized for framing issues in a way that lacks neutrality. It spurred NDP leader Naheed Nenshi to launch his own consultation after calling the province’s version a “sham.”
More than halfway through what’s been a turbulent political year, New West CEO Monte Solberg joined the CBC’s West of Centre to break down global trade tensions, federal-provincial friction, and separatist undercurrents. You can listen to the full conversation here.
Like Premier Ford, Alberta’s Premier also offered advice to the federal government following the 35 per cent tariffs from the United States. In a post on X, Premier Smith said, “I remain convinced that the path to a positive resolution with our U.S. partners lies in strong, consistent diplomacy and a commitment to working in good faith toward shared priorities.” She urged the federal government to continue negotiating to restore a free and fair-trade agreement with the United States, while diversifying and strengthening the Canadian economy by unleashing its world class natural resource sector.
The Alberta government and the Alberta Union of Provincial Employees (AUPE) have agreed to enter a final round of mediated bargaining, aiming to secure a deal for roughly 23,000 provincial workers after 18 months of negotiations. AUPE President Guy Smith credited Finance Minister Nate Horner for helping restart talks and emphasized that pay and working conditions remain the key issues. While both sides have agreed to keep bargaining details confidential, Smith noted that the union’s 90 per cent strike mandate remains in effect until mid-September. If an agreement is reached, members could vote on it in early September.
Upcoming Events Calendar
August 14, 2025: Alberta Next panel Edmonton town hall
August 18, 2025: Battle River-Crowfoot federal by
August 26, 2025: Alberta Next panel Fort McMurray town hall
August 27, 2025: Alberta Next panel Lloydminster town hall
September 12-14, 2025: Ontario Liberal Party AGM
September 15, 2025: House of Commons returns
October 20, 2025: Ontario Legislature returns
October 27, 2025: Alberta Legislature returns
January 29-31, 2026: Conservative Party of Canada National Convention
March 29, 2026: NDP Leadership Race Results Announcement
