The Battle for BC
Eby bet the house. Voters may take it.
After five weeks, one debate and a snap election call, the ballot question in BC has settled on a classic in politics: is it time for a change? According to the latest polling from the Angus Reid Institute, 54 per cent of British Columbians say it is, and Innovative Research Group found the share who strongly agree has climbed 10 points over the course of the campaign.
That is a tough backdrop for a premier who chose the timing. NDP Leader David Eby called this election two years into his mandate hoping to catch the Conservatives flat-footed, yet it is his campaign that has spent much of the past five weeks reacting and shifting messaging. The NDP opened the campaign warning of Trump-style politics before pivoting to a tax-the-rich pitch.
We called the snap election a gamble in our first edition, and Canadian political history has not always been kind to governments that go to the polls early without a clear reason. Ontario Premier David Peterson called an election three years into a majority mandate in 1990 and handed Bob Rae the only NDP government in Ontario’s history. Jim Prentice’s early call in Alberta in 2015 delivered that province’s first NDP government. All signs point to Eby similarly having overplayed his hand.
On the other side, Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s decision to step aside just days before the election call looks increasingly selfless, giving the Conservatives a coalition and a path to victory under Interim Leader Lorne Doerkson. Voters have warmed to him as the campaign has gone on, with Innovative Research finding Doerkson gained between six and 10 points on key leadership attributes, including a 10-point jump in the share who see him as the most competent choice. The Conservatives released their costed platform on Sunday, projecting the deficit would fall to $10.8 billion by 2029 on growth assumptions critics have called optimistic, four days after the NDP rolled out its own fully costed plan hours before the debate.
The latest polls give the Conservatives leads ranging from three points with Angus Reid to five with Innovative Research. The Writ’s election tracker projects 52 Conservative seats to 39 for the NDP, with the Conservatives winning the most seats in 76 per cent of its simulations. The math cuts both ways, though: a vote spread efficiently enough to turn a modest lead into a comfortable majority also leaves plenty of seats that can flip on a small shift.
A key test on election night will be on the left. Eby’s final-week appeal to Green voters arguing their votes decided 11 ridings in the last election shows the party is opting to turn left instead of right to hold onto its seats. With 73 candidates, substantive environmental credentials and the best net favourability of any leader in Angus Reid’s latest poll, the Greens offer a real alternative for progressives dissatisfied with the NDP, even if they have a realistic shot at only a few seats.
British Columbians also went to the polls just last Saturday, and sitting mayors in Vancouver, Surrey, Kamloops and Prince George were all asked to exit stage left. That appetite for change, and turnout for a second trip to the polls in as many weeks, are two more things to watch on election night.
With a little over 48 hours until polls close, it’s the final push for both the NDP and Conservative campaigns. The chips are on the table, and on Saturday night, voters decide who cashes in.
New West Public Affairs is following the BC election closely and is ready to help clients make sense of the dynamic and changing landscape in the province.
