Referendum Reckoning: The Vote Is Over. The Politics Aren't.
The Vote Is Over. The Politics Are Not.
Pollsters have taken their share of lumps over the years, but this time they got it right. Throughout the campaign, polls consistently showed around 70 per cent of Albertans wanted to remain in Canada. With ballots still being counted, roughly three-quarters of Albertans have voted to stay, delivering a decisive rejection of taking the next step toward separation.
Premier Danielle Smith delivered a televised address Tuesday evening. She declared that Alberta would remain in Canada and promised that, for as long as she is Premier, there would be no further referendum on separation. She also acknowledged separatists' frustrations with Ottawa, credited them with helping change the national conversation, and invited them to believe in Canada again.
That’s easier said than done.
Separatist organizers are already looking for ways to maintain their pressure on Premier Smith within the UCP. Mitch Sylvestre, who spearheaded the Stay Free Alberta petition campaign, offered Smith a pointed warning Tuesday: “You made a choice. You're going to possibly have to suffer the consequences.” Fellow organizer Jeff Rath openly discussed efforts to take control of the governing party, while UCP President Rob Smith has urged separatists to respect the referendum result and focus on winning the next provincial election.
The referendum also highlighted another powerful political force: Alberta's First Nations.
Several First Nations challenged the separation petition in court over treaty rights and the Crown's duty to consult. In May, a judge overturned Elections Alberta's approval of the petition, a decision the province appealed. On referendum day, unexpectedly high turnout in several Indigenous communities forced Elections Alberta to deliver additional ballots.
While it’s difficult to know how much that turnout contributed to the result, Alberta’s First Nations helped shape the debate through both the courts and the campaign. Their involvement will remain a factor in any future effort to advance separation.
With ballots still being counted, all five immigration-related questions are trending toward a yes vote. These include proposals to give Alberta greater control over immigration, restrict access to provincially funded services for some temporary residents, and require proof of citizenship to vote. The four constitutional questions are producing closer results, with support more divided and one proposal currently trailing. All four could still fail, depending on the final results.
In her Tuesday address, Premier Smith made clear that while Albertans have rejected separation, they have not abandoned their demands for a different relationship with Ottawa. She pledged to continue asserting Alberta's rights and pursuing changes within Confederation.
The questions are non-binding, so implementing some of the proposed changes would require cooperation from Ottawa. Constitutional amendments would be even more difficult, requiring support beyond Alberta. With Ottawa unlikely to agree to every demand, Smith can return to a familiar political strategy of making the federal government the focus of Alberta's frustrations.
But while Smith can direct her attention toward Ottawa, she can't escape the divisions within her own party. The UCP will gather in Calgary on November 27 and 28 for its annual general meeting, where some UCP members will be looking to make the party explicitly separatist. Jeffrey Rath, noted separatist leader, appeared on CTV News this morning and threatened Premier Smith’s leadership saying, “she can’t get elected without us.” Rath, a current UCP member, has pledged to work to remove Premier Smith as leader from the governing party to further the separatist movement.
The challenge for Smith will be keeping her conservative coalition together while shifting its focus back to governing and the 2027 election.
Also on Tuesday, Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi thanked Albertans for standing up for Canada and signalled that the opposition would keep its attention on affordability, health care, education and the cost of the referendum.
Recent polling puts the NDP ahead, giving the party its strongest opening in years as Smith manages divisions within her own coalition. Whether Nenshi can turn that advantage into a durable lead will depend on his ability to persuade voters that the NDP offers a credible government. For Smith, the immediate risk is that the internal fight over separation consumes time and attention she needs to regain voters' confidence.
Smith has demonstrated considerable skill at walking the political tightrope between Alberta's separatist movement, her broader conservative coalition and an increasingly cooperative relationship with Ottawa. The referendum hasn't removed that tightrope, but it has changed the balance required to stay on it.
The referendum may be over, but it hasn't calmed the winds. The question now is how strong they'll get, and whether Smith can withstand them.
New West Public Affairs is closely following the referendum results and their political and policy implications, and is ready to help clients navigate Alberta's evolving political landscape.
