Weekly Roundup - October 16, 2026
Top Federal Stories
Provincial and federal politics converged this week as all eyes are on Alberta and Monday’s referendum vote. Prime Minister Mark Carney was in Calgary on Thursday and Edmonton Friday evening headlining large rallies. Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilevre also spoke in favour of unity in a Calgary speech Friday. Most notably, in Red Deer the Prime Minister stood shoulder to shoulder sharing a message of unity with Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith at a rally organized by Vote to Stay, a pro-Canada campaign chaired by New West CEO Monte Solberg.
Further west, First Nations in B.C. are pushing back over what they say has been a lack of consultation by Ottawa on the Pacific Link pipeline. Carney designated the Alberta-to-B.C. line a national interest project on October 1. Chiefs say Ottawa gave them 11 working days to weigh in on the designation. Major Projects Office CEO Dawn Farrell said on Wednesday that she supports the chiefs’ request for national consultation standards with guaranteed timelines, but questioned how this would fit with Ottawa’s faster approval schedule. Consultation on the pipeline itself is still required, and Ottawa aims to conclude the process within a year and break ground next September.
Back in Ottawa, two Liberal MPs say the drive to speed up major projects is straining a workforce that is already struggling to keep up. Speaking Wednesday at the Future Skills Centre, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Jobs and Families Leslie Church said the skills of job seekers often fail to match what employers need. Church said Ottawa is putting money into apprenticeships and incentives to train workers, but added that employers and schools need to align training with what the labour market needs. Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Industry Karim Bardeesy echoed that sentiment, noting that Canadian businesses have long spent less on training than their OECD peers.
The House of Commons will return on Monday after a break week, while Prime Minister Carney will make the first bilateral visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to Turkey midweek. It's another stop on the PM's world tour as Carney relentlessly beats his drum of diversifying trade away from the United States.
Thanksgiving dinners across Alberta likely served up more than turkey this year, with the 10 questions on next week's ballot finding their way onto tables across the province. The referendum dominated headlines through the long weekend, and if advance voting is any indication, Albertans are eager to have their say.
Advance polls opened Tuesday, and more than 174,500 people cast their ballots on the first day alone, with some polling stations staying open hours past closing to accommodate long lines. For context, the average advance voting day in past provincial elections has drawn about 151,000 voters. Demand for mail-in ballots was just as strong, with approximately 658,000 special ballots requested, roughly 600,000 more than during the 2023 provincial election.
Between advance polls and returned special ballots, hundreds of thousands of Albertans have already voted. Elections Alberta is projecting turnout of 80 to 85 per cent, potentially surpassing the provincial record of 81.8 per cent set in 1935. Due to provincial law that requires every ballot to be counted by hand, Monday night will be a long one. Unofficial results on the separation question aren't expected until after midnight. That question will be counted first, followed by the remaining nine in order, with all unofficial results required to be released within 48 hours of polls closing.
New West will be following Monday’s vote closely and is ready to help clients navigate the results, understand the political implications and prepare for what comes next.
Construction is officially underway on the $2.9-billion Yellowhead Mainline natural gas pipeline. ATCO's Canadian Utilities broke ground Tuesday on the 235-kilometre line, which will run from Peers in west-central Alberta to Fort Saskatchewan and carry more than one billion cubic feet of natural gas daily to Dow's Path2Zero facility and other customers.
Premier Danielle Smith and Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean marked the groundbreaking with a joint statement highlighting the project's importance to Alberta's long-term economic growth. The pipeline has been in development since 2024 and faced opposition from some rural landowners over its original route, which was subsequently revised to follow existing development corridors.
Top Ontario Stories
Premier Doug Ford told an Empire Club audience this week that two years of “crisis” and “chaos” have permanently changed Canada’s relationship with the United States and that tariffs are here to stay. “We need to be prepared for the long haul,” Ford said. He predicted a “big change” in Congress after next month’s U.S. midterm elections but offered few details on new provincial measures beyond “more action” to simplify permitting. The speech came as steel manufacturer Stelco began issuing layoff notices in Hamilton. Up to 500 jobs are on the line due to what the company says are plummeting exports following American tariff hikes.
The Canadian Press reported this week that students at Canada’s National Ballet School, McMaster Divinity College and Toronto Film School are among those affected by the pause on Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP) payments announced earlier this month. Minister Nolan Quinn’s office says it is working on low-interest loans through third-party lenders, but it has given no timeline for those loans or for lifting the pause. Separately, Quinn barred three Academy of Learning locations from OSAP until 2029-30 after government inspectors alleged that third parties had completed students’ coursework. Records obtained by CP show students at the Academy’s Bay Street and Brampton East locations and a North York campus received about one-fifth of the nearly $1 billion in OSAP grants paid to career college students in 2024-25. The legislature returns October 27, and Quinn has said the government will introduce legislation this fall to make online-only career college programs ineligible for OSAP.
Election day for Ontario’s mayors and councils is October 26. In Toronto, Nanos Research has Mayor Olivia Chow at 51 per cent to Councillor Brad Bradford’s 47 among decided voters, narrowing the gap to 4 from nearly 10 points in its previous poll. Bike lanes continue to be a contentious issue. The province began removing part of the Bloor Street West bike lane on October 14, prompting protests and several arrests. Chow said the premier should “stop interfering with local democracy,” while Bradford has said lanes that are not working should come out. Chow and Bradford meet in a televised debate on October 22.
In Mississauga, polls show a tight race between incumbent Mayor Carolyn Parrish, Councillor Alvin Tedjo and former Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, who was mayor from 2014 to 2024. In Ottawa a Nanos poll has incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe at 18 points ahead of opponent Councillor Jeff Leiper. In Hamilton Mayor Andrea Horwath, a former Ontario NDP leader, faces former president of the Canadian Institute of Steel Construction Keanin Loomis and in Brampton, Mayor Patrick Brown, a former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader, is seeking a third term.
New West in the News
Shannon Greer on Monday's referendum
New West Senior Consultant Shannon Greer joined the Capital Conversations panel on 880 CHED and QR Calgary to discuss the final days leading up to Alberta's referendum, where things stand heading into Monday's vote and what the results could mean for the province's political future.
Ian Brodie on Carney’s final push in Alberta
New West Senior Advisor Dr. Ian Brodie joined the CBC Calgary Eyeopener political panel on Friday to discuss Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Calgary ahead of Monday’s referendum. Ian said Carney is in Alberta to make sure the federalist side turns out to vote. Carney is most popular with older and higher-income voters, and with the polls showing a wide lead for staying in Canada, Ian said the risk for the federalist side is supporters deciding they don’t need to vote.
Michael Solberg on the future of Alberta separatism
New West Partner Michael Solberg joined CBC’s West of Centre to discuss whether Alberta’s separatist movement will fade after the October 19 referendum. Michael said most Albertans will be ready to move on once the results are in, but the organizers behind the separatist campaign will not, and they will have more chances to shape how the governing party conducts itself.
Get in Touch!
The New West Team is ready to help clients navigate change, understand government priorities, and identify opportunities to advance your objectives.
