Weekly Roundup - October 23, 2026
Top Federal Stories
Prime Minister Mark Carney said this week that Ottawa is prepared to act "very quickly" if Cleveland-Cliffs does not reverse planned layoffs at Stelco. The U.S.-based steel company announced earlier this month that it would cut up to 500 jobs in Hamilton and Lake Erie. When it bought Stelco in 2024, Cleveland-Cliffs agreed under the Investment Canada Act to maintain employment levels until 2029. The company blames U.S. tariffs and what it sees as Canada's failure to stop foreign steel dumping, while the federal government says it offered financial help to avoid job losses, but was turned down. On Wednesday, Carney said the company had one more day to respond, and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has warned that financial penalties or a forced sale or could follow.
Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbour doesn’t appear to be softening. On Wednesday, the U.S. embassy in Canada published a list of quotes from Canadian politicians that it says shows attempts to influence American politics ahead of November's midterm election. The list follows U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra's warning earlier this month that Canadian politicians should keep their "nose out" of American politics. Speaking in Istanbul on Friday, Carney said the claims have "no merit."
Meanwhile, Carney's push for closer ties with Europe continues. International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu was in Ireland on Thursday to advance a Canada-EU digital trade agreement covering areas such as paperless trade, data flows and e-commerce. Sidhu said the two sides are close to a deal. Canada exported nearly $15 billion in digital services to the EU in 2024. Canada-EU Summit in Montreal next week is expected to set out the next steps in this growing relationship.
Back at home Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said the government is finishing the second chapter of its electricity strategy. Part two of the government’s energy plan, which the minister’s office says will be released by the end of the year, follows the May strategy which proposed changes to the Clean Electricity Regulations. Ideas under consideration include a role for the Canada Energy Regulator in coordinating interties to move more power east to west.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed Tuesday that the 2026 federal budget will be tabled on November 5. New West will be providing analysis of the budget and what it means for clients across sectors.
The hand count of ballots continued Friday morning after Elections Alberta missed its legislated 48-hour deadline Wednesday night.
While the final numbers are still coming in, the political picture is becoming clearer. Roughly three-quarters of Albertans voted against taking the next step toward separation. The other nine questions produced mixed results, with four immigration proposals headed toward narrow victories and all four constitutional questions appearing likely to fail. The question about requiring proof of citizenship to vote received the strongest support, at about 58 per cent.
The results reveal a significant urban-rural split. Rural Albertans supported all nine proposals, while Edmonton voted against every one and Calgary opposed all but the citizenship question. That's an important distinction for Premier Danielle Smith, particularly with several competitive Calgary ridings in play in the next provincial election.
At a news conference Wednesday, Smith acknowledged the lack of consensus, saying her government would "proceed with caution." It’s not the strong mandate she asked Albertans for and doesn’t close the divisions within the UCP. Meanwhile, the Alberta NDP is polling higher than it has in years.
Read our full analysis on the referendum here:
Referendum Reckoning: The Vote Is Over. The Politics Aren't.
Smith is now attempting to draw a line with separatists within her own party. In a video posted to social media Wednesday, she declared that the UCP is not an independence party and urged those unwilling to accept the referendum results to find another political home. The message has not gone over well with prominent separatists, some of whom are already organizing to gain influence over the party's board and candidate nominations.
The challenge for Smith will be keeping her conservative coalition together while shifting the government's focus back to governing and the 2027 election.
That effort is already underway as the legislature prepares to return Tuesday. Government House Leader Joseph Schow outlined the fall legislative priorities Friday, with the government turning its attention to more bread-and-butter issues, including affordability, health care, education and public safety. The agenda also includes stronger oversight of childcare facilities, consumer protections, new rules around data centre development, and tougher penalties for unsafe driving and illegal dumping. Schow confirmed there will be no immigration legislation this fall, with the government instead working with Ottawa and other provinces on economic immigration proposals that could take shape next spring.
Despite the political challenges facing the government, UCP MLAs return to Edmonton with a strong balance sheet. The province released its 2025-26 year-end financial results, reporting a $2.2-billion surplus, its fifth consecutive year in the black. The result was $7.4 billion better than what was projected in Budget 2025. The province is now projecting a sixth consecutive surplus, with the next quarterly fiscal update expected by the end of November.
Top Ontario Stories
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Doug Ford announced an $8.7 billion joint package on Wednesday to support Ontario industries hit by U.S. tariffs. Carney said the investments will protect up to 290,000 jobs across the province. The two governments will also set up joint steel and auto task forces and a coordinated permitting process for critical minerals projects. The announcement follows Stelco’s decision to idle its Hamilton finishing operations, where up to 500 jobs could be affected.
Colleges and Universities Minister Nolan Quinn confirmed Tuesday that the pause on OSAP payments at all private post-secondary institutions will stay in effect until at least the new year, when a new approval system is expected. Ministry investigators began in-person inspections at eight career colleges last week. Trillium College has suspended academic operations because of the pause, and students at several campuses are organizing protests and rallies. Expect OSAP to feature prominently when the legislature returns next Tuesday, October 27.
Election day for Ontario’s mayors and councils is Monday. In Toronto, the latest Nanos poll puts Mayor Olivia Chow at 49.8 per cent to Brad Bradford’s 46.6 among decided voters, within the margin of error. The two met in their final debate on Thursday. The sharpest exchange was over Bradford’s plan to convert Toronto Water from a direct city department into an independent, publicly owned corporation. Chow argued the move would open the door to privatization, but Bradford said he would resign his seat if that ever happened.
In Mississauga, former mayor Bonnie Crombie has moved into the lead in the final week. A Liaison Strategies poll released Thursday has Crombie at 35 per cent among decided and leaning voters, Councillor Alvin Tedjo at 31 and incumbent Mayor Carolyn Parrish at 28. With advanced voting spiking 57 per cent compared to last municipal election, results in Mississauga are expected to be tight.
New West in the News
Keith McLaughlin on the winners and losers of the Alberta referendum
New West Partner Keith McLaughlin appeared on The Hub's Alberta Edge podcast to discuss the political challenge facing the UCP post-referendum.
Shannon Greer on where the separatists go now
New West Senior Consultant Shannon Greer appeared on 880 CHED with Shaye Ganam to dissect possible next steps for the political movement for Alberta's independence.
Matt Solberg on Alberta's regional divides
New West Partner Matt Solberg spoke with The Globe and Mail about what the referendum results mean for Premier Danielle Smith and the United Conservative Party, particularly in Calgary’s key battleground ridings.
Michael Solberg on the Premier's popularity
New West Partner Michael Solberg joined 880 CHED to discuss what comes next for Premier Danielle Smith after Albertans voted to remain in Canada.
REPLAY: The Art of the Early Election Call
Timing is everything in politics. Last year, Partner Matt Solberg and Senior Consultant Christopher Martin-Chan explored the risks and rewards of calling an early election on our Off Script with New West podcast. Fast forward to today, and B.C. Premier David Eby is putting that strategy to the test. With voters heading to the ballot box Saturday and the NDP trailing in recent polls, his decision to call an election two years early could prove costly. A timely opportunity to revisit a conversation about one of the biggest gambles in politics.
Get in Touch!
The New West Team is ready to help clients navigate change, understand government priorities, and identify opportunities to advance your objectives.
